Evaluation of technology foresight projects
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Evaluation of technology foresight projects Beata Poteralska & Anna Sacio-Szymańska
Received: 28 June 2013 / Accepted: 10 October 2013 # The Author(s) 2013. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
Abstract Foresight is a well-known and widely used methodology for the creation of medium and long-term visions of technological, economic and social development. The need for evaluating foresight projects is unquestionable, but it is still a scarce phenomenon. The interests of the authors of the paper are focused mainly on foresight impact as one of the principal aspects of foresight evaluation, although they are aware of numerous objectives and aspects of foresight evaluation. The authors show the outcomes of case study analyses of selected evaluations conducted with regard to national and transnational foresight projects. Furthermore, current attempts to create systemic foresight evaluation frameworks are presented. They comprise general evaluation frameworks meant for the evaluation of different aspects of foresight projects execution, with respect to the process and results, including foresight impact as one of evaluated aspects as well as frameworks devoted strictly to the foresight impact evaluation. Scientific work on foresight evaluation models is still in progress and the authors of the paper indicate the current stage of models’ development. Keywords Technology foresight . Foresight evaluation . Foresight impact . Systemic foresight evaluation models
State of the art The dynamic growth in the importance of the competitiveness and innovativeness of the advanced product and process B. Poteralska (*) : A. Sacio-Szymańska Innovation Strategies Department, Institute for Sustainable Technologies - National Research Institute, Pulaskiego 6/10, 26-600 Radom, Poland e-mail: [email protected] A. Sacio-Szymańska e-mail: [email protected]
technologies, and the concomitant need for strategic planning of the areas for action at the national, regional, and institutional levels, determine the actions of the most developed economies directed at the identification of developmental changes and trends, particularly in the medium and the long term. Due to the growing complexity of relations between science, technology, environment, and society, the analysis of market trends is becoming an increasingly difficult process. Concurrently, the determining and shaping R&D priorities of the future seems to be much more indispensable for the effective investment in science and new technologies, aimed, in the long term, at the improvement of the quality of life of the entire society. Since the cost of scientific and technological development has increased, the need for the introduction of systems for the early identification of change tendencies, the evaluation of risk and indication of possible opportunities the science and technology development may bring, has emerged. Therefore, both R&D organisations and enterprises should be equipped with the appropriate tools supporting t
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