Existential Threats of Immigration and Terrorism Predict Voting for Brexit and Trump
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Existential Threats of Immigration and Terrorism Predict Voting for Brexit and Trump Alyson E Blanchard 1
&
Fraenze Kibowski 2 & Thomas J Dunn 1
Received: 6 March 2020 / Revised: 5 May 2020 / Accepted: 13 May 2020 # Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract The year 2016 witnessed historic political change with the ascension to power of Donald Trump and the UK’s vote to leave the European Union (i.e. Brexit). Research has sought to explain these once-deemed unlikely events, yet an evolutionary theoretical account remains unexplored. From a life history perspective, a rise in existential threat, potentially caused by increased media coverage of the War in Syria and immigration issues, may have prompted a shift to a faster life history strategy (LHS)/pace of life syndrome (POLS). Immediate answers were sought despite long-term consequences. In this multiple study paper, we shed light on this thesis. Firstly, in establishing a perceived increase in existential threats between 2014 and 2016. Secondly, by examining if LHS/POLS and associated proxies, as well as fear of terrorism and immigration predicted voting for Brexit or Trump. Trump voters feared terrorism, and Brexit voters feared immigration, but LHS/POLS was not directly, nor ultimately influential in their vote choice; however, for those that did not vote, it was. Nevertheless, other life history proxies were important factors in voting. Thus, the link between LHS/POLS and voting is complex but affords new insight into voter psychology during the EU referendum and US presidential election. Keywords Life history theory . Pace of life syndrome . Voting . Brexit . Trump . Immigration . Terrorism
The UK vote to leave the European Union (EU) in the 2016 Referendum was unexpected. Politicians, journalists and financial markets, up until the exit polls, had predicted a safe win for remaining in the EU. Also, stupefying was the outcome of the US presidential election the same year in which Donald Trump, a business man and celebrity with no previous political experience, became the world’s most powerful head of state. Seemingly, a seismic shift in public conscience had gone undetected. Explanations for this shift have since been attempted by commentators and researchers, citing terrorism and immigration as key determinants, yet such existential threats had always permeated public awareness as menaces to life and resources, which leads to the question: what was
* Alyson E Blanchard [email protected] 1
Department of Psychology, Bishop Grosseteste University, Longdales Road, Lincoln LN1 3DY, United Kingdom
2
Department of Psychology, Nottingham Trent University, Chaucer Building, Shakespeare Street, Nottingham NG1 5LT, United Kingdom
different this time to prompt a change so considerably removed from the status quo? Many studies have examined factors such as personality traits and demographic profiles in voting behaviour; however, what has yet to be considered is whether these factors can be contextualised within an evolutionary
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