External Prospective Validation of the Modified CriSTAL Score for 30- and 90-day Mortality in Geriatric Urgent Surgical
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
External Prospective Validation of the Modified CriSTAL Score for 30- and 90-day Mortality in Geriatric Urgent Surgical Patients Inés Eguaras Córdoba 1 & Pablo Sánchez Acedo 2 & Javier Herrera Cabezon 2 & Arkaitz Galbete 3 & Magnolia Cardona 4 Received: 14 July 2020 / Accepted: 1 October 2020 # 2020 The Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract
Abstract Objective This study aimed to determine the predictive accuracy of the modified clinical prognostic tool Criteria for Screening and Triaging to Appropriate aLternative care (CriSTAL) to predict 30-day and 90-day mortality in older patients undergoing urgent abdominal surgery. Background Anticipating the mid-term mortality of older patients undergoing urgent surgery is complex and flawed with uncertainty. Methods A prospective study of consecutive ≥ 65 years old presenting at the emergency department who subsequently underwent urgent abdominal surgery. The modified CriSTAL score was calculated in the sample using the FRAIL scale instead of the Clinical Frailty Scale. Discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC)) and model calibration were used to test the predictive accuracy of the modified CriSTAL score for death within 30-day mortality as the primary outcome. Results A total of 500 patients (median age 78 years) were enrolled. The observed 30-day and 90-day mortality rate were 11.6% and 13.6%. The modified CriSTAL tool AUROC curve to predict 30-day and 90-day mortality was 0.78 and 0.77. The model was well calibrated according to the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p: 0.302) and the calibration plots to predict 30-day and 90-day mortality. Conclusions The modified CriSTAL tool (with FRAIL scale as frailty instrument) had good discriminant power and was well calibrated to predict 30-day and 90-day mortality in elderly patients undergoing urgent abdominal surgery. The modified CriSTAL tool is an easy preoperative tool that could assist in the prognosis of postoperative outcomes and decision-making discussions with patients before for urgent abdominal surgery. Keywords FRAIL score . Elderly patients . Urgent abdominal surgery . 30-day mortality . 90-day mortality
Introduction The proportion of older people, defined as people older than 65 years,1 is rapidly increasing in Spain and around the world and it is expected to double by 2050.2 In fact, more than half of
urgent surgery in the USA is performed in this age group.3, 4 Older people with frailty, cognitive impairment, and concurrent chronic illness comprise increasing proportions of hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) presentations. It has been recognized that advanced age increases the risk of mortality and
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s11605-020-04822-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Inés Eguaras Córdoba [email protected]
Magnolia Cardona [email protected]
Pablo Sánchez Acedo [email protected]
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Complejo Hospitalario de
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