Feasibility of containing shigellosis in Hubei Province, China: a modelling study
- PDF / 2,258,243 Bytes
- 10 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 65 Downloads / 183 Views
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Feasibility of containing shigellosis in Hubei Province, China: a modelling study Jia Rui1†, Qi Chen2†, Qiuping Chen3†, Qingqing Hu4, Mikah Ngwanguong Hannah5, Zeyu Zhao1, Yao Wang1, Xingchun Liu1, Zhao Lei1, Shanshan Yu1, Yi-Chen Chiang1, Benhua Zhao1, Yanhua Su1, Bin Zhao6 and Tianmu Chen1*
Abstract Background: The transmission features and the feasibility of containing shigellosis remain unclear among a population-based study in China. Methods: A population–based Susceptible – Exposed – Infectious / Asymptomatic – Recovered (SEIAR) model was built including decreasing the infectious period (DIP) or isolation of shigellosis cases. We analyzed the distribution of the reported shigellosis cases in Hubei Province, China from January 2005 to December 2017, and divided the time series into several stages according to the heterogeneity of reported incidence during the period. In each stage, an epidemic season was selected for the modelling and assessing the effectiveness of DIP and case isolation. Results: A total of 130,770 shigellosis cases were reported in Hubei Province. The median of Reff was 1.13 (range: 0.86–1.21), 1.10 (range: 0.91–1.13), 1.09 (range: 0.92–1.92), and 1.03 (range: 0.94–1.22) in 2005–2006 season, 2010– 2011 season, 2013–2014 season, and 2016–2017 season, respectively. The reported incidence decreased significantly (trend χ2 = 8260.41, P < 0.001) among four stages. The incidence of shigellosis decreased sharply when DIP implemented in three scenarios (γ = 0.1, 0.1429, 0.3333) and when proportion of case isolation increased. Conclusions: Year heterogeneity of reported shigellosis incidence exists in Hubei Province. It is feasible to contain the transmission by implementing DIP and case isolation. Keywords: Shigellosis, Transmission control, Feasibility, Mathematical model
Background Globally, Shigella spp, which causes severe diarrhea and dysentery, is the second leading cause of diarrhea death following rotavirus, and it is estimated that the pathogen causes approximately 210,000 deaths among all ages, including about 63,700 children under the age of five [1]. Despite mortality from diarrhea has declined, its incidence remains high, particularly in economically underdeveloped countries [2, 3]. The high-risk groups include * Correspondence: [email protected] † Jia Rui, Qi Chen and Qiuping Chen contributed equally to this work. 1 State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
children aged 1 to 4 years old, and some other groups include travelers to areas where dysentery is prevalent and men who have sex with men [2, 4–7]. Because humans are the only host of Shigella spp, diarrhea is transmitted by contact between people and some related life behaviors, while food and water are less common to transmit diarrhea. In addition, f
Data Loading...
