Forecasting Basic Research Using Scientometric Data
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casting Basic Research Using Scientometric Data P. A. Kalachikhin* All-Russian Institute for Scientific and Technical Information (VINITI), Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 125315 Russia *e-mail: [email protected] Received February 25, 2020
Abstract—A program for researching methods and means of forecasting the state of fundamental science is presented. The difficulty of forecasting basic research is indicated and a formal approach to the search for a universal criterion for the demarcation (delimitation) of knowledge is substantiated. It is shown that the forecasting of the development of science is based on an information model of scientific activity. It is proposed to revise methods for the forecasting of the development of science by reconsidering the standard information model of scientific activity. Methods for forecasting fundamental science are differentiated depending on the time period and level of research. The specificity of the tasks of medium-term forecasting of results of fundamental research and the emergence of new directions of development of fundamental science is identified. The typical composition of indicators that can be employed in the formation of the forecast of scientific activity, including composite and hybrid technologies, as well as the expanded use of expert methods, is determined. The significance of the quality of scientometric data for obtaining forecasts of the development of science in the framework of the discussed research program is formulated. Keywords: demarcation, information model, medium-term forecasting, basic research DOI: 10.3103/S0147688220020100
INTRODUCTION There have been increasing numbers of program tools that make, it would seem, even the most incredible ideas entirely feasible and allow improvement of conventional methods of goal setting, forecasting, and management of scientific research. It is of interest to obtain new nontrivial results aimed at receiving practical benefits or that are capable of serving as a good example, as a starting point for research in similar areas. The purpose of this publication is to describe the development of a program for creating a model that would make it possible to formulate forecasts of the effectiveness of scientific research that has been carried out in current conditions. Based on the development of a methodology for forecasting scientific research, we pose the problem of finding ways to obtain a useful result: a forecast of the state of science. The novelty of the proposed approach to forecasting the development of science lies in the more detailed selection of methods for obtaining forecasts in specific cases on the basis of initial requirements. This study focuses on science as a system of scientific knowledge. We consider fundamental rather than all scientific knowledge, since the state of national fundamental science is a key priority. In addition, the forecasting of basic research, in contrast to applied developments, is an understudied area. Clarification
of the question of what type of research should
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