Forecasting disability-adjusted life years for chronic diseases: reference and alternative scenarios of salt intake for
- PDF / 1,251,604 Bytes
- 12 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 65 Downloads / 174 Views
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Forecasting disability-adjusted life years for chronic diseases: reference and alternative scenarios of salt intake for 2017–2040 in Japan Shuhei Nomura1,2,3*† , Daisuke Yoneoka1,2,4†, Shiori Tanaka1,3, Aya Ishizuka1, Peter Ueda1,5, Keiji Nakamura6,7, Hisayuki Uneyama7, Naoki Hayashi7,8 and Kenji Shibuya1,9
Abstract Background: In Japan, a high-sodium diet is the most important dietary risk factor and is known to cause a range of health problems. This study aimed to forecast Japan’s disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) for chronic diseases that would be associated with high-sodium diet in different future scenarios of salt intake. We modelled DALY forecast and alternative future scenarios of salt intake for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), chronic kidney diseases (CKDs), and stomach cancer (SC) from 2017 to 2040. Methods: We developed a three-component model of disease-specific DALYs: a component on the changes in major behavioural and metabolic risk predictors including salt intake; a component on the income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model to capture the unexplained component correlated over time. Data on risk predictors were obtained from Japan’s National Health and Nutrition Surveys and from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. To generate a reference forecast of disease-specific DALY rates for 2017–2040, we modelled the three diseases using the data for 1990–2016. Additionally, we generated better, moderate, and worse scenarios to evaluate the impact of change in salt intake on the DALY rate for the diseases. Results: In our reference forecast, the DALY rates across all ages were predicted to be stable for CVDs, continuously increasing for CKDs, and continuously decreasing for SC. Meanwhile, the age group-specific DALY rates for these three diseases were forecasted to decrease, with some exceptions. Except for the ≥70 age group, there were remarkable differences in DALY rates between scenarios, with the best scenario having the lowest DALY rates in 2040 for SC. This represents a wide scope of future trajectories by 2040 with a potential for tremendous decrease in SC burden. (Continued on next page)
* Correspondence: [email protected] Shuhei Nomura and Daisuke Yoneoka are Shared first authorship. 1 Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan 2 Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Medicine, Keio University, 35 Shinanomachi, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 160-8582, Japan Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. T
Data Loading...
