Forecasting the resilience of Bibitarkhoun karst spring, southwest Iran, to the future climate change
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Forecasting the resilience of Bibitarkhoun karst spring, southwest Iran, to the future climate change Nejat Zeydalinejad1 · Hamid Reza Nassery1 · Farshad Alijani1 · Alireza Shakiba2 Received: 8 April 2020 / Accepted: 21 May 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract Even though the “resilience” term has been widely employed in ecology and somewhat in surface water hydrology, vis-à-vis groundwater, it has been hitherto scarcely utilized. In this study, firstly, the climatic variables of Lali region, southwest Iran, and the discharge rates of a substantial karst spring, i.e. Bibitarkhoun, were obtained in the base (1961–1990) and future (2021–2050) time periods under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, utilizing NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections data set and artificial neural networks, respectively. Secondly, the spring’s dynamic storages were quantified by depicting its loss curves over the years of the base and future time periods. Thirdly, the Groundwater Resilience Index (GRI) was computed based on the Standardized Precipitation Index approach, using the spring’s discharge rates (GRI1) and dynamic storages (GRI2). The spring’s loss curve corresponds to no-precipitation period, and it was taken into account as the disturbance event to assess the spring’s resilience. Results demonstrated that if the GRI values less than − 1.5, i.e. very and extremely dry years, were taken into account as the disturbance events, the satisfactory condition would be achieved immediately in the next year. Therefore, a promising resilience is expected under climate change. The spring’s loss curves of the observation data indicated it takes approximately three and 5 years to exceed the threshold of 60 and 80% reduction in the spring’s discharge rates, respectively. Keywords Karst · Climate change · Groundwater Resilience Index · Discharge rate · Dynamic storage
Introduction The “resilience” concept was primarily employed in ecology to evaluate the system’s function when encountering unsatisfactory conditions (Holling 1973), and it was firstly calculated in surface water hydrology by Hashimoto et al. (1982). However, this concept, which is a significant factor in water security perspective (Foster and MacDonald 2014), has not been hitherto commonly utilized in groundwater hydrology. Notwithstanding, the groundwater resources are more resilient to climate change and variability than the surface water resources (Cuthbert et al. 2019). Indeed, the residence time of groundwater is multiple times greater than that of surface water (Lapworth et al. 2013; MacDonald et al. 2011). As * Hamid Reza Nassery h‑[email protected]; [email protected] 1
Department of Minerals and Groundwater Resources, School of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
GIS and Remote Sensing Studies Center, School of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2
a matter of fact, the groundwater resources would keep in good condition dur
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