Future Risks and Risk Management
Future Risks and Risk Management provides a broad perspective on risk, including basic philosophical issues concerned with values, psychological issues, such as the perception of risk, the factors that generate risks in current and future technological an
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Technology, Risk, and Society An International Series in Risk Analysis VOLUME 9
Editors Jeryl Mumpower, State University of New York, Albany, USA Ortwin Renn, Center of Technology Assessment, Baden-Wiirttemberg, Germany
The titles published in this series are listed at the end of this volume.
FUTURE RISKS AND RISK MANAGEMENT Edited by
BERNDT BREHMER Department of Psychology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
and
NILS-ERIC SAHLIN Department of Philosophy, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
SPRINGER-SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA. B.v.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Future risks and rlsk management / edlted by Nl1s-Eric Sahlln and Berndt Brehmer. p. cm. -- (Technology, rlsk, and soclety ; v. 9) ISBN 978-90-481-4454-9 ISBN 978-94-015-8388-6 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-94-015-8388-6 1. Rlsk-taklng (Psychology) 2. Risk perceptlon. 1. Sahlln, Nl1s -Erlc. II. Brehmer, Berndt. III. Serles. BF637.R57F88 1994 302' . 12--dc20 94-22695 ISBN 978-90-481-4454-9
Printed on acid-free paper
AII Rights Reserved
© 1994 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 1994 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1994
No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner.
Contents Editors' Introduction vii Acknowledgement xiii CHAPTER I
Risk Management, Adaptation, and Design for Safety Jens Rasmussen I
CHAPTER II
Epistemic Risk: The Significance of Knowing What One Does Not Know Nils-Eric Sahlin and Johannes Persson 37 CHAPTER III
Perceptions of Risk: Paradox and Challenge Paul Slovic 63
CHAPTER IV
Psychological Research on Risk: Some Notes on Psychological Research Related to Risk Berndt Brehmer 79 CHAPTER V
Ethical Aspects of Valuing Lives Jonas Josefsson, Goran Hermeren and Nils-Eric Sahlin
93 CHAPTER VI
The Psychology of Risk Characterization Baruch Fischhoff 12 5
CHAPTER VII
Risk Communication: The Social Construction of Meaning and Trust Timothy C. Earle and George Cvetkovich 141
CHAPTER VIII
Lay Risk Evaluation and the Reform of Risk Management Kristin S. Shrader-Frechette
183 List of Contributors
253
Editors' Introduction This book grew out of a series of seminars arranged by the editors of this book and sponsored by the Institute for Future Studies in Stockholm. With a few exceptions, the chapters are updated versions of the papers presented at the seminars. The plan for these seminars was to cover the whole spectrum of risks as they relate to the future: risk generation, risk perception, risk communication, risk management, and risk mitigation. While not offering a complete coverage of all these topics (no single book could do that), the aim was nevertheless to present some new insights relating to each of these topics. Although the book is concerned with risks in the future, it does not contain a list of spe
