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Wynne Godley

Alan Shipman

Wynne Godley A Biography

Alan Shipman Department of Economics The Open University Milton Keynes, UK

ISBN 978-3-030-12288-1 ISBN 978-3-030-12289-8  (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-12289-8 Library of Congress Control Number: 2018968266 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2019 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Cover illustration: © Jurgen Schadeberg, also the pioneer of South African photojournalism This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

Contents

1

Life Before Economics 1926–1955 1

2

Under Treasury Rules 1956–1964 15

3

Short-Term Forecasting 37

4

Public Expenditure 63

5

Planning, Tax Reform and Structural Change 77

6

Gatecrashing the Cambridge Tradition 93

7

Public Expenditure Revisited 111

8

Sector Balances and ‘New Cambridge’ 135

9

Balance of Payments, Deindustrialisation and Protection 151

v

vi     Contents

10 Spectating on Thatcher and Major 167 11 ‘Macroeconomics’ 187 12 The Research Council Showdown 203 13 Wilderness and Wisdom 215 14 Cassandra Across the Atlantic 233 15 The Long Road to Redemption 257 16 Monetary Economics and After 277 17 The True Self 289 References 299 Index 313

List of Figures

Fig. 10.1 Hope springs eternal in the post-Lawson Treasury (From Godley [1992]) 181 Fig. 14.1 Three major financial (im)balances 1999 (Source Godley [1999, Figure 7, p. 8]) 247

vii

List of Tables

Table 10.1 Average annual growth rates 1976–1994 183 Table 11.1 Public liabilities generate private assets in monetary Macroeconomics 190 Table 13.1 Wealth in a simple monetary economy 224

ix

Introduction and Acknowledgements

Wynne Godley deserved an autobiography; we may yet be blessed to find