Geostatistical analysis and mapping: social and environmental determinants of under-five child mortality, evidence from
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Geostatistical analysis and mapping: social and environmental determinants of underfive child mortality, evidence from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey Justice Moses K. Aheto1* , Robert Yankson2 and Michael Give Chipeta3
Abstract Background: Under-five mortality (U5M) rates are among the health indicators of utmost importance globally. It is the goal 3 target 2.1 of the Sustainable Development Goals that is expected to be reduced to at least 25 per 1000 livebirths by 2030. Despite a considerable reduction in U5M observed globally, several countries especially those in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) like Ghana are struggling to meet this target. Evidence-based targeting and utilization of the available limited public health resources are critical for effective design of intervention strategies that will enhance under-five child survival. We aimed to estimate and map U5M risk, with the ultimate goal of identifying communities at high risk where interventions and further research can be targeted. Methods: The 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data was used in this study. Geostatistical analyses were conducted on 5884 children residing in 423 geographical clusters. The outcome variable is child survival status (alive or dead). We employed a geostatistical generalised linear mixed model to investigate both measured and unmeasured child specific and spatial risk factors for child survival. We then visualise child mortality by mapping the predictive probability of survival. Results: Of the total sampled under 5 children, 289 (4.91%) experienced the outcome of interest. Children born as multiple births were at increased risk of mortality with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) (aOR: 8.2532, 95% CI: [5.2608– 12.9477]) compared to singletons. Maternal age increased risk of mortality (aOR: 1.0325, 95% CI: [1.0128–1.0527]). Child’s age (aOR: 0.2277, 95% CI: [0.1870–0.2771]) and number of children under 5 within each household (aOR: 0.3166, 95% CI: [0.2614–0.3835]) were shown to have a protective effect. Additionally, mothers with secondary education level (aOR: 0.6258, 95% CI: [0.4298–0.9114]) decreased the risk of U5M. The predicted U5M risk in 2014 was at 5.98%. Substantial residual spatial variations were observed in U5M. Conclusion: The analysis found that multiple births is highly associated with increased U5M in Ghana. The highresolution maps show areas and communities where interventions and further research for U5M can be prioritised to have health impact. Keywords: Child deaths, Under-five mortality, Geostatistical analysis, Mapping under-five mortality, Risk factors, Ghana, Sub-Saharan Africa, Developing countries
* Correspondence: [email protected]; [email protected] 1 Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, University of Ghana, P. O. Box LG13, Legon, Accra, Ghana Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4
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