Grey System Theory Based Net Load Forecasting for High Renewable Penetrated Power Systems
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(2020) 5:21
ORIGINAL PAPER
Grey System Theory Based Net Load Forecasting for High Renewable Penetrated Power Systems Sreenu Sreekumar1 · Kailash Chand Sharma2 · Rohit Bhakar3 Received: 4 December 2019 / Accepted: 6 October 2020 © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Abstract Net-load is the imbalance between aggregated load and renewable generation. System operations like economic dispatch necessitate accurate forecasting of net-load. There has been significant progress in load and renewable generation forecasting, however, little research focus has been there on Net-Load Forecasting (NLF). Therefore, this paper proposes three Direct Grey index net-load forecasting models (DGM (1, 1), DGM (1, 2) and DGM (1, 3)) using Grey System Theory (GST). GST based models are suitable for accurate and fast very short-term (five minutes ahead) forecasting due to their momentum transfer behavior. Proposed NLF models are implemented for the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) balancing area. Forecasts obtained from proposed models are compared with actual net load data and forecasts obtained from reference Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model. Comparison with actual net load shows that proposed models have strong potential for very short-term NLF. At very short time frames, net load shows a very high correlation with previous time steps data. Proposed models utilize such characteristics for forecasting, compared to continuous error reduction procedure in ANN. Continuous error reduction in a very short time frame can lead to under/overestimation of ANN weights and that lowers the forecasting accuracy. Proposed NLF models, especially DGM (1, 3) show superior performance over ANN. Keywords Aggregated load forecasting · Grey system theory · Net load forecasting · Power system planning · Solar generation forecasting · Wind generation forecasting
Introduction Increasing penetration of uncertain and variable renewable energy such as wind and solar in modern power system enhances uncertain variables in system operational planning. This necessitates complex operational strategies to handle such multivariate uncertainties. Various uncertain variables such as aggregated load, wind and solar power can be combined to form a single uncertain variable, called net load, and can be used to reduce operational
Rohit Bhakar
[email protected] 1
Electrical Electronics Engineering Department, National Institute of Technology Trichy, Tiruchirappalli, India
2
Electrical Engineering Department, Dr. B. R. Ambedkar National Institute of Technology Jalandhar, Jalandhar, India
3
Electrical Engineering Department, Malaviya National Institute of Technology Jaipur, Jaipur, India
complexity. Net load is the difference between aggregated system load and renewable generation [21]. Therefore, conventional generators have to be scheduled for net load and power system operational planning like generation flexibility requirement evaluation is planned based on net load [17]. These operations necessitate accurate net load predictions. Load was the
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