Ground-level Ozone Prediction Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Case Study in Amman, Jordan
- PDF / 689,192 Bytes
- 11 Pages / 595.26 x 841.82 pts (A4) Page_size
- 28 Downloads / 201 Views
d-level Ozone Prediction Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Case Study in Amman, Jordan Maryam Aljanabi Mohammad Shkoukani Mohammad Hijjawi Faculty of Information Technology, Applied Science Private University, Amman 11931, Jordan
Abstract: Air pollution is one of the most serious hazards to humans′ health nowadays, it is an invisible killer that takes many human lives every year. There are many pollutants existing in the atmosphere today, ozone being one of the most threatening pollutants. It can cause serious health damage such as wheezing, asthma, inflammation, and early mortality rates. Although air pollution could be forecasted using chemical and physical models, machine learning techniques showed promising results in this area, especially artificial neural networks. Despite its importance, there has not been any research on predicting ground-level ozone in Jordan. In this paper, we build a model for predicting ozone concentration for the next day in Amman, Jordan using a mixture of meteorological and seasonal variables of the previous day. We compare a multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLP), support vector regression (SVR), decision tree regression (DTR), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithms. We also explore the effect of applying various smoothing filters on the time-series data such as moving average, Holt-Winters smoothing and Savitzky-Golay filters. We find that MLP outperformed the other algorithms and that using Savitzky-Golay improved the results by 50% for coefficient of determination (R2) and 80% for root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). Another point we focus on is the variables required to predict ozone concentration. In order to reduce the time required for prediction, we perform feature selection which greatly reduces the time by 91% as well as shrinking the number of features required for prediction to the previous day values of ozone, humidity, and temperature. The final model scored 98.653% for R2, 1.016 ppb for RMSE and 0.800 ppb for MAE. Keywords: Ozone prediction, machine learning, neural networks, supervised learning, regression.
1 Introduction Air pollution is one of the major hazards to human health and the ecosystem nowadays. With the growing development of the economy, the rising population, the increase in industries and the growing need for transportation, this all leads to increased environmental pollution which includes air pollution. Air pollution is mainly caused by the emissions of factories, electrical facilities, vehicles that burn fuel, meteorological factors, etc.[1] Ground-level ozone is a major pollutant that is hazardous to humans′ health, unlike the stratospheric ozone layer that protects the earth. It is formed as a reaction between pollutants resulting from industrial emissions, vehicles, and electrical facilities. Health problems associated with ozone exposure include wheezing, coughing, asthma, chest pain, decreased capacity for exercise, inflammation, increased mortality rate and more[2]. It can
Data Loading...
