How we (should?) study Congress and history
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How we (should?) study Congress and history Sarah Binder1 Received: 10 July 2019 / Accepted: 13 July 2019 © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2019
Abstract Applying an array of quasi-experimental designs, proponents of causal inference approaches to studying American politics are setting their sights on the study of Congress. In many ways, that focus makes sense: improved research design allows us to draw stronger analytical inferences from observational data, bolstering our understanding of legislative politics. But are the pursuit and methods of causal inference equally well suited to the study of Congress and history? In this article, I consider the application of causal inference methods in historically oriented studies of Congress. Drawing from my coauthored work on the interdependence of Congress and the Federal Reserve over the Fed’s first century and earlier work on the institutional evolution of Congress, I point to the tradeoffs between knowledge and certainty that are endemic in causal inference approaches—and arguably especially so in the study of Congress and history. Keywords Congress · History · Federal Reserve · Monetary politics JEL Classification N00 · H00 · G28
1 Introduction Students of American politics have caught the bug of causal inference. Applying an array of quasi-experimental designs, enthusiasts of causal inference methods are setting their sights on the study of Congress (e.g., Berry and Fowler 2016; Hall and Thompson 2018). The potential benefits are clear: improved research design enables us to draw stronger analytical inferences from observational data, enhancing our understanding of legislative politics. But are the pursuit and methods of causal inference equally well suited to the study of Congress and history? In this article, I consider the application of causal inference methods in historically oriented studies of Congress. Drawing from my coauthored work on the interdependence of Congress and the Federal Reserve over the Fed’s first century (Binder and Spindel 2017) and earlier work on the institutional evolution of Congress (Binder 1997; Binder and Smith 1997), I point to the tradeoffs between knowledge and certainty * Sarah Binder [email protected] 1
The Brookings Institution, George Washington University, 2215 G. St. NW, Washington, DC 20052, USA
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that are endemic in trying to leverage causal inference approaches in the study of Congress and history.
2 Why study Congress and history? To set the stage for evaluating the application of causal inference methods to historical work on Congress, it is helpful to begin with a reminder of why the study of Congress, history and American political development more broadly have attracted the attention of political scientists. Note first, of course, that an historical turn has not been limited to political science. Perhaps most prominently, scores of economists (following the path paved largely by Douglass North beginning in the 1970s) have turned to history t
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