Human health in systemic adaptation to climate change: insights from flood risk management in a river basin
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Human health in systemic adaptation to climate change: insights from flood risk management in a river basin Timo Assmuth1,2 · Tanja Dubrovin3 · Jari Lyytimäki1
© The Author(s) 2019
Abstract Human health risks in dealing with floods in a river basin in South-Western Finland are analysed as an example of scientific and practical challenges in systemic adaptation to climate change and in integrated governance of water resources. The analysis is based on case reports and plans, on literature studies and on conceptual models of risks and risk management. Flood risks in the Northern European study area are aggravated by melt- and storm-water runoff, ice jams and coastal flooding. Flood risk assessment is linked with management plans based on EU directives as applied in the case area. National risk management policies and procedures of increasing scope and depth have been devised for climate change, water resources and overall safety, but an integrated approach to health risks is still largely missing. The same is true of surveys of perceived flood risks, and participatory deliberation and collaborative planning procedures for flood risk management in the case area, specifically for adaptive lake regulation. Health impacts, risks and benefits, socio-economic and systemic risks, and overarching prevention, adaptation and compensation measures are not fully included. We propose a systematic framework for these extensions. Particular attention needs to be given to health risks due to flooding, e.g. from water contamination, moist buildings, mental stress and infrastructure damage and also from management actions. Uncertainties and ambiguities about risks present continuing challenges. It is concluded that health aspects of flooding are complex and need to be better included in assessment and control, to develop more integrated and adaptive systemic risk governance. Keywords Flood · Climate · Health · Systemic risks · Integrated assessment · Collaborative governance
1 Introduction Flood risks constitute a key challenge notably in adapting to climate change and variability (CRED 2015). In Finland, severe floods are not as common as in some other countries (EEA 2010; cf. Tanoue et al. 2016), but estimated aggregate losses due to coastal flooding of major Finnish cities are on a medium level in the EU (Prahl et al. 2018). Also in Finland, the economic losses vary widely, for instance, from ca. 3 M€ in the 1990s to 8 M€ in 2004 and to 17 M€ in 2005, of the latter estimate 12 M€ from the severe coastal flooding
* Timo Assmuth [email protected] 1
Environmental Policy Centre, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland
2
Helsinki, Finland
3
Freshwater Centre, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland
that year (Sane and Huokuna 2008). These loss estimates are dwarfed by those assigned in high-risk localities to rare floods. Moreover, some types of impacts and risks have been considered insufficiently, and many risks are projected to increase and change (Parjanne et al. 2018). Im
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