Hurricanes and Climate Change Volume 2
Hurricanes are nature’s most destructive agents. Widespread interest surrounds the possibility that they might get even more destructive in the future. Policy makers consider it a call for action. Answers about when and by how much hurricanes will change
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James B. Elsner Robert E. Hodges Jill C. Malmstadt Kelsey N. Scheitlin Editors
Hurricanes and Climate Change Volume 2
ABC
Editors James B. Elsner Florida State University Department of Geography Ferndale Drive 114 32306 Tallahassee, Florida USA [email protected] Robert E. Hodges Florida State University Department of Geography Ferndale Drive 114 32306 Tallahassee, Florida USA
Jill C. Malmstadt Florida State University Department of Geography Ferndale Drive 114 32306 Tallahassee, Florida USA Kelsey N. Scheitlin Florida State University Department of Geography Ferndale Drive 114 32306 Tallahassee, Florida USA
ISBN 978-90-481-9509-1 e-ISBN 978-90-481-9510-7 DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-9510-7 Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2010934734 c Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010 No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Cover illustration: Frequency and intensity of hurricanes at lifetime maximum intensity over the North Atlantic. The color scale is linear from 1 (blue) to 15 (yellow) indicating the number of hurricanes reaching lifetime maximum (first time only) within the hexagon. The value inside the hexagon is the maximum intensity (m/s) of all lifetime maximum values in the bin. The analysis is done on a Mollweide projection so that the hexagons have equal area. Data source: U.S. National Hurricane Center best-track, 1943-2008. Cover design: deblik Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
Preface
Hurricanes are among nature’s most destructive agents. Widespread interest surrounds the possibility that they might even get more damaging in the future. Some policy makers consider it a call to action. Financial want to know when and by how much. And scientists are certainly challenged by the range and interactions of the processes involved. This book, arising from the Second International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change (31 May through 5 June 2009 in Corfu, Greece), contains new research since the First Summit (2007 in Crete) on topics related to hurricanes and climate change. Chapters are grouped into studies using global climate models and those taking empirical and statistical approaches. The latter include investigations of basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone activity. The book opens with a review of progress on an international project to compare global climate models on their ability to generate tropical cyclones. Chapter 2 highlights predictions of tropical cyclone activity under global warming using a cloud-resolving climate model. Chapter 5 discusses the potential insights of considering tropical cyclone activity as critica
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