Impact of convection and stability parameters on lightning activity over Andhra Pradesh, India
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RESEARCH ARTICLE - ATMOSPHERIC & SPACE SCIENCES
Impact of convection and stability parameters on lightning activity over Andhra Pradesh, India N. Umakanth1 · G. Ch. Satyanarayana1 · B. Simon2 · Prashant Kumar2 · M. C. Rao3 Received: 21 December 2019 / Accepted: 1 September 2020 © Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences & Polish Academy of Sciences 2020
Abstract This paper brings out the interconnection of flash rate density (FRD) with convection and stability parameters over Andhra Pradesh (AP), India. The convection parameters include rainfall, relative humidity, specific humidity, surface air temperature (SAT) and air temperature (at 850 mb). The stability parameters include convective available potential energy (CAPE), lifted index, K-index, total totals index (TTI), humidity index and total precipitable water. Both convective and stability parameters indicate good correlation with lightning activity. SAT and AT 850 mb have shown good correlations with lightning, which is a clear indication of interaction between warm air and dry air. CAPE and TTI have shown strong positive correlation with lightning activity. The correlation coefficient between FRD and CAPE is 0.81. We have also studied the influence of convective and stability parameters during lightning and no lightning activity. Later, we also attempted the estimation of lightning activity by using artificial neural network model. By using convection and stability parameters, six learning algorithms were used for training the artificial neural network. Scaled conjugate gradient backpropagation training algorithm has given the better estimation, whereas resilient backpropagation training algorithm has shown the poor estimation of FRD. Keywords Flash rate density · Rainfall · Convective available potential energy · Artificial neural network · Convection · Stability
Introduction Lightning is a natural and common phenomenon seen in the tropical countries which results in many deaths every year throughout the world during pre-monsoon months (March, April and May) (Weng et al. 2010). Globally, 6000 to 24,000 deaths occurred due to lightning strikes every year all over the world (Gomes and Kadir 2011). Human fatalities have been increasing in the recent years due to lightning activity. According to NDMA annual report 2018, out of all natural disasters 39% of deaths are due to lightning during the time period of 1967–2012 (Source: https://ndma.gov.in/images/ pdf/Draft-Guidelines-thunderstorm.pdf). There were more * N. Umakanth [email protected] 1
Department of Atmospheric Science, Koneru Lakshmaiah Education Foundation, Vaddeswaram 522502, India
2
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Space Applications Centre (SAC), Ahmedabad 380023, India
3
Department of Physics, Andhra Loyola College, Vijayawada 520008, India
lightning deaths in 2004 (Singh and Singh 2015). The extent of lightning disaster is large as it costs more than 2000 deaths every year in India (Vaddadi et al. 2015; Das 2015). Out of all seasons, pre-monsoon reco
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