Impact of Past Rainfall Events on the Urban Transport Sector of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region: Current and Future Proje
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Impact of Past Rainfall Events on the Urban Transport Sector of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region: Current and Future Projections Under BAU Scenario Ishant Sharma1 · Munish K. Chandel2 Received: 14 November 2019 / Accepted: 22 May 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract This paper analyses the impact of antecedent rainfall events on the urban transport of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), Maharashtra, India. The impacts are analysed in terms of cancelled trips, passenger and vehicle kilometres travelled. We utilized a high flood level map for rainfall events between 2005 and 2007 to prepare a flooded transport network for MMR from 2005 to 2050. This flooded network was modelled in a travel demand model for MMR, restricting the speed and public transport access links based on the flood depth. The results show that maximum cancelled vehicle trips in case of floods would be from private mode (~ 60%) in 2050. The cancelled passenger trips from the metro and suburban rail would be ~ 52% due to both rainfall events. This decrease in the trips would contribute to the reduction in passenger and vehicle activity by an average of ~ 45% and 75% in 2050. The analysis of this study will be beneficial for policymakers to implement various policies and remedial measures towards reducing the effect of such rainfall events in the future. Keywords Travel demand modelling · VKT · Passenger-km · Floods · Cancelled trips
Introduction Cities are social centers, and quality of life in cities depends upon several facilities and functions such as housing, water, energy, transport infrastructure, education, and employment. Rapid urbanization results in numerous problems for policymakers and administrators. Urban flooding is one of the problems and is a pressing challenge for cities like Mumbai [1]. The leading causes of floods include improper planning, climate change, heavy rainfall coupled with inadequate or poor drainage facilities, obstruction of drains, and many more [2, 3]. Urban floods result in significant tangible impacts, including monetary losses, and intangible impacts [4].
* Munish K. Chandel [email protected] 1
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Memphis, Memphis, TN 38152, USA
Environmental Science and Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400076, India
2
Transport infrastructure is the immediate affected area of flooding, as stormwater quickly finds its way into it [3]. Numerous literature and past studies are available for climate change’s impact on the transportation sector through vehicle emissions [5–9], but limited studies for exploring the impact of urban flooding on the performance transportation infrastructure. We propose to fill this gap by studying the effect of past flooding events on existing and future transport infrastructure to ensure their resiliency. Spurious past literature is available to explore the damaging effects of extreme weather on transport infrastructure [10–15]. Dore et al. [10] explored the
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