Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessme
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Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment Jasper Verschuur 1,2 & Dewi Le Bars 2 & Caroline A. Katsman 1 & Sierd de Vries 1 & Roshanka Ranasinghe 4,5,6 & Sybren S. Drijfhout 2,3 & Stefan G. J. Aarninkhof 1 Received: 26 September 2018 / Accepted: 14 June 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
Sea-level rise (SLR) can amplify the episodic erosion from storms and drive chronic erosion on sandy shorelines, threatening many coastal communities. One of the major uncertainties in SLR projections is the potential rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Quantifying this uncertainty is essential to support sound risk management of coastal areas, although it is neglected in many erosion impact assessments. Here, we use the island of Sint Maarten as a case study to evaluate the impact of AIS uncertainty for future coastal recession. We estimate SLR-induced coastal recession using a probabilistic framework and compare and contrast three cases of AIS dynamics within the range of plausible futures. Results indicate that projections of coastal recession are sensitive to local morphological factors and assumptions made on how AIS dynamics are incorporated into SLR projections and that underestimating the potential rapid mass loss from the AIS can lead to ill-informed coastal adaptation decisions. Keywords Coastal erosion . Sea-level rise . Probabilistics . Antarctica . Rapid disintegration
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-02002769-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
* Jasper Verschuur [email protected]
1
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, The Netherlands
2
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Utrechtseweg 297, 3731 GA De Bilt, The Netherlands
3
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Department of Physics, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands
4
Department of Water Engineering, UNESCO-IHE, 3015 DA Delft, The Netherlands
5
Water Engineering and Management, University of Twente, 7500 AE Enschede, The Netherlands
6
Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Deltares, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands
Climatic Change
1 Introduction Coastal zones accommodate millions of people worldwide and provide immense economic, environmental and aesthetic value to society (McGranahan et al. 2007; Hallegatte et al. 2013). At least 20% of the world’s sandy beaches are in a state of erosion (Luijendijk et al. 2018), and sea-level rise (SLR) will inevitably exacerbate the retreat of shorelines (Stive 2004; FitzGerald et al. 2008; Ranasinghe and Stive 2009; Hinkel et al. 2013; Anderson et al. 2015). Coastal managers are responsible for safeguarding the resilience of coastal communities to coastline erosion. The design and cost-efficiency of coastal defences (e.g. nourishments, setback lines) h
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