In Search of Foresight Methodologies: Riddle or Necessity
To study the future is to study potential change – unveiling what is likely to make a systemic or fundamental difference over the next 10–25 years or more. Studying the future is not simply economic projection or sociological analysis or technological for
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In Search of Foresight Methodologies: Riddle or Necessity Maria Giaoutzi and Bartolomeo Sapio
I also realized along the way that the goal is not everything. Going through the process all together is important. Michel Godet (2012)
To study the future is to study potential change – unveiling what is likely to make a systemic or fundamental difference over the next 10–25 years or more. Studying the future is not simply economic projection or sociological analysis or technological forecasting, but a multidisciplinary examination of change in all major areas of life in order to find the interacting dynamics that are creating the next age. Futurists have not yet reached consensus on the name or definition of their activity. Some prefer the term ‘futures research’, meaning the use of methods to identify systematically both the consequences of policy options and alternative futures with policy implications for decision makers. Others prefer the term ‘future studies’, meaning the study of what might happen, and what we might want to become. Still others, apparently in Europe and francophone Africa, prefer ‘prospective studies’, meaning the study of the future in order to develop a strategic attitude of mind with a long-range view of creating a desirable future. Foresight is a professional practice that supports significant decisions, and as such it needs to be more assured of its claims to knowledge (methodology). Foresight
M. Giaoutzi (*) Department of Geography and Regional Planning, National Technical University of Athens (NTUA), Heroon Polytechniou str. 9, Zographou Campus, 15780, Athens, Greece e-mail: [email protected] B. Sapio Fondazione Ugo Bordoni, Viale del Policlinico 147, Roma, 00161, Italy e-mail: [email protected] M. Giaoutzi and B. Sapio (eds.), Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies, Complex Networks and Dynamic Systems 1, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-5215-7_1, © Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013
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M. Giaoutzi and B. Sapio
is practised across many domains and is not the preserve of specialised ‘futurists’, or indeed of foresight specialists. However, the disciplines of foresight are not well articulated or disseminated across domains, leading to reinventions and practice that does not always make best use of experience in other domains. Futures research can be directed to large- or small-scale issues, in the near or distant future, and can project possible or desired conditions. It is not a science; the outcome of studies depends on the methods used and the skills of the practitioners. Its methods can be highly quantitative or qualitative. It helps to provide a framework to better understand the present and expand mental horizons. The value of futures research lies less in forecasting accuracy than in its usefulness in planning and opening minds to consider new possibilities, and thus change the policy agenda. Its purpose is not to know the future, but to help us make better decisions today via its methods that force us to anticipate opportunities and threats, and consider how to a
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