Increments to life and mortality tempo
This chapter introduces and develops the idea of “increments to life.” Increments to life are roughly analogous to forces of mortality: they are quantities specified for each age and time by a mathematical function of two variables that may be used to des
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Demographic Research Monographs E. Barbi, S. Bertino, E. Sonnino (Eds.) Inverse Projection Techniques 2004. XI, 137 pages. 978-3-540-20931-7 G. Doblhammer The Late Life Legacy of Very Early Life 2004. X, 204 pages. 978-3-540-22105-0 R. Rau Seasonality in Human Mortality 2007. XV, 214 pages. 978-3-540-44900-3 A. Baudisch Inevitable Aging? 2008. XXI, 170 pages. 978-3-540-76655-1
Elisabetta Barbi · John Bongaarts James W. Vaupel Editors
How Long Do We Live? Demographic Models and Reflections on Tempo Effects
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Professor Elisabetta Barbi University of Messina Department of Economics, Statistics, Mathematics and Sociology “W. Pareto” Via Tommaso Cannizzaro 278 98100 Messina Italy [email protected]
Professor James W. Vaupel Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1 18057 Rostock Germany [email protected]
Professor John Bongaarts Population Council 1 Dag Hammarskjold Plaza New York, NY 10017 USA [email protected]
Printed with the financial support of the Max Planck Society ISBN 978-3-540-78519-4
e-ISBN 978-3-540-78520-0
DOI 10.1007/978-3-540-78520-0 Demographic Research Monographs ISSN 1613-5520 Library of Congress Control Number: 2008923550 © 2008 Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Production: le-tex Jelonek, Schmidt & Vöckler GbR, Leipzig Cover design: WMX Design GmbH, Heidelberg The front cover photo – top right hand corner – includes a photograph by Harald Wenzel-Orf (www.wenzel-orf.de) and has been reproduced with his permission. Printed on acid-free paper 987654321 springer.com
Foreword
How should life expectancy be calculated? More generally, how should life tables be estimated? Since John Graunt’s pioneering contribution, read before the Royal Society of London at 6 p.m. on the 27th of February 1661, demographers have developed better and better methods. Some concerns were raised, including concerns about how to deal with heterogeneous populations published in an article in Demography in 1979 that I wrote with Kenneth Manton and Eric Stallard. Yet, a few years ago nearly all demographers believed that as long as the underlying population and death counts were accurate, then lifetables could be reliably estimated.
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