Inside a Modern Macroeconometric Model A Guide to the Murphy Model
As Ken Wallis (1993) has pOinted out, all macroeconomic forecasters and policy analysts use economic models. That is, they have a way of going from assumptions about macroeconomic policy and the international environment, to a prediction of the likely fut
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Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH
Alan A. Powell . Christopher W. Murphy
Inside a Modern Macroeconometric Model A Guide to the Murphy Model Second, Revised and Enlarged Edition
With a contribution by Nicholas Conron With 107 Figures and 90 rabIes
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Springer
Professor Alan A. Powell Monash University Impact Research Centre Il th FI., Menzies Bldg. Wellington Road Clayton, Vie. 3168 Australia Christopher W. Murphy ECONTECH P.O. Box 4129 Kingston, Act. 2604 Australia
ISBN 978-3-642-63836-7 ISBN 978-3-642-59069-6 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-59069-6 Cataloging-in-Publication Data applied for Die Deutsche Bibliothek - CIP-Einheitsaufnahme Powell, Alan A.: Inside a modem macroeconometric model: a guide to the Murphy model; with 90 tables / Alan A. Powell; Christopher W. Murphy. With a contribution by Nicholas Conron. - 2., rev. and en!. 00. - Berlin; Heidelberg, New York; Barce1ona; Budapest; Hong Kong; London; Mi1an; Paris; Santa Clara; Singapore; Tokyo: Springer, 1997 (Lecture notes in economics and mathematica1 systems; 428) ISBN 978-3-642-63836-7 TItis work is subJect to copyright. AlI rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifica1ly the rights of trans1ation, reprinting, reuse of mustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted on!y under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer-Verlag. Violations are liable for prosecution under the German Copyright Law. O Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1997 Origina1ly published by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York in 1997 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 2nd edition 1997 The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in thi, publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Hardcover-Design: Erich Kirchner, Heidelberg SPIN 10631528 42/2202-5 4 3 2 1 O - Printed on acid-free paper
ForJo whose unflagging encouragement. support and tolerance made this book possible
AAP
For Cathie who has given me so much - including the encouragement to build MM
CWM
Model-Builder's Preface As Ken Wallis (1993) has pOinted out, all macroeconomic forecasters and policy analysts use economic models. That is, they have a way of going from assumptions about macroeconomic policy and the international environment, to a prediction of the likely future state of the economy. Some people do this in their heads. Increasingly though, forecasting and policy analysis is based on a formal, explicit model, represented by a set of mathematical equations and solved by computer. This provides a framework for handling, in a consistent and systematic manner, the ever-increasing amounts of relevant information. Macroeconometric modelling though, is an inexa
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