Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making

There are two dominant approaches to political decision making in general and foreign policy decision making in particular: rational choice and cognitive psychology. The essays here introduce and test the poliheuristic theory of decision making that integ

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ADVANCES IN FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS Series Editor: Professor Alex Mintz,Texas A&M University Foreign Policy Analysis offers rich theoretical perspectives and diverse methodological approaches. Scholars specializing in Foreign Policy Analysis produce a vast output of research.Yet, there are only very few specialized outlets for publishing work in the field.Addressing this need is the purpose of Advances in Foreign Policy Analysis. The series bridges the gap between academic and policy approaches to Foreign Policy Analysis, integrates across levels of analysis, spans theoretical approaches to the field, and advances research utilizing decision theory, utility theory, and game theory. Members of the Board of Advisors: Allison Astorino-Courtois, Texas A&M University Steve Chan University of Colorado Margaret Hermann Syracuse University Valerie Hudson Brigham Young University Patrick James University of Missouri Jack Levy Rutgers University Zeev Maoz Tel Aviv University Bruce M. Russett Yale University Donald Sylvan The Ohio State University Steve Walker Arizona State University Dina A. Zinnes University of Illinois

INTEGRATING COGNITIVE AND RATIONAL THEORIES OF FOREIGN POLICY DECISION MAKING Edited by Alex Mintz

INTEGRATING COGNITIVE AND RATIONAL THEORIES OF FOREIGN POLICY DECISION MAKING

Copyright © Alex Mintz, 2003. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2003 978-0-312-29409-0 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles or reviews. First published 2002 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN™ 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 and Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, England RG21 6XS. Companies and representatives throughout the world. PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin’s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-63461-3 ISBN 978-1-137-07848-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-137-07848-3 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Integrating cognitive and rational theories of foreign policy decision making / [editor] Alex Mintz. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. International relations—Decision making. 2. International relations—Psychological aspects. I. Mintz, Alex, 1953– JZ1253.I58 2002 327.1’01’156—dc21 2002024600 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Design by Letre Libre. First edition: January 2003 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3

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Transferred to Digital Printing 2012

Dedicated to my father Hans George Muentz

CONTENTS

PART I: INTRODUCTION 1.

Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making: A Poliheuristic Perspective Alex Mintz

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PART II: CASE STUDIES 2.

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The Decision Not to Use Force at Dien Bien Phu: A Poliheuristic Perspect