International Business and Trade in the Next Decade: Report from a Delphi Study
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including International Marketing (fifth edition), International Business (fourth edition) and Global Marketing. Received:February1997;Revised:May& June1997;Accepted:June1997. 827
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JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONALBUSINESSSTUDIES, FOURTH QUARTER1997
becomeglobal in nature[Kwok,Arpan and Folks 1994].Anotherapproach has interpretedresearchtrendsof academics,by analyzingthe frequencyof articles publishedin differentareas of internationalbusiness [Wrightand Ricks 1994].Occasionally,corporationswere queriedas to theirfutureoutlook andneedsin internationalbusiness[Hoffmanand Gopinath1994]. Severalcharacteristicsare commonto all these studies.One is theirprimary focuson one countryonly wheninvestigatinga globalphenomenon.Another is theirconcentrationon only one constituencyof the internationalbusiness process. Even though change in internationalbusiness is driven by the interactionof the business,policy and academiccommunities,past research typicallyqueriesonly one groupof theseplayers.In consequence,the insights providedare limitedto the views of the one groupinvestigated,and do not reflectthe importantandpossiblydifferentperspectivesof the two groupsleft out. This is particularlynoticeablewith regardsto the policy community, whoseviewsareonly rarelyinvestigatedby internationalbusinessscholars.A long-termanalysisby InkpenandBeamish[1994]foundthat,overa periodof twenty-fiveyears,only 1.9%of articlespublishedin theJournalof International BusinessStudieshad a policy-orientedfocus.A finalcharacteristicis the fact that virtually none of these studies reflectedany interactionbetween the business, policy and researchcommunitieson the subject of trends and changes. Such interaction, however, is imperativein order to obtain a reasonablyaccurateforecastof impendingmetamorphoses. This articlepresentsan assessmentof changes in the internationalbusiness field,and does so with a broaderperspectivethan earlierresearch.To trigger researchideas for academics,to assist businessin preparingfor impending change,andto suggestareasof importanceto policymakers,thisarticleoffers insights into the thinking among the business,policy and academiccommunitieswith regardsto the futureof internationalbusinessand tradein the majormarketareasof the world:the Americas,Asia-Pacificand Europe. RESEARCHAPPROACH Variousapproachescan establishhow pertinentconstituentsview the future. A broad-basedcontent analysisof the currentliteraturecan examinetrends [Naisbitt 1990; Wheeler 1988]. However, this approach is very resource intensiveand, due to languagelimitations,possiblybiasedby the perceptions and interpretationsof U.S.-basedanalysts.In addition, such an approach does not benefitfromanyinteractionbetweenpolicymakers,businessleaders and academics.A secondapproachis the interviewmethod,whichallowsfor in-depthquestioning.By conveninga group of expertsat one location and facilitatingtheirinteractionovera pr
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