International Sequencing with Historical Examples
The basic economic model developed in Chapters 2 and 3 is now applied to interstate sequencing. The benefit-cost analysis again shows that there are two stable equilibria and two transitional dis-equilibria. Three interstate historical sequences are ident
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Interpreting Historical Sequences Using Economic Models
Paul Hallwood
Interpreting Historical Sequences Using Economic Models War, Secession and Tranquility
Paul Hallwood Department of Economics University of Connecticut Storrs, CT, USA
ISBN 978-3-030-53853-8 ISBN 978-3-030-53854-5 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-53854-5 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
This book is dedicated to my wife, Barbara, and three children, Sarah, Alexander, and Philip.
Preface
‘All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds’. Voltaire’s Dr. Pangloss in Candide
There have been over 150 border changes since the end of the First World War and that’s only a fraction of history. Watching videos of European border changes since early-Roman times dazzles the eyes, and with the Indian subcontinent too.1 Each border change has its own history going back decades and even centuries. Different peoples have been involved, speaking their different languages, having their different religions, different DNAs, different standards of living, facing different foes and, if they were lucky, enjoying their different friends. Sometimes border changes resulted from civil war and sometimes from treaty settlements after international wars. Sometimes civil wars ended with a nation not splitting apart. Sometimes a third country came to the aid of a disadvantaged people, but often not. Sometimes a third country came to the aid of an advantaged people to make sure that the disadvantaged people remained disadvantaged. Sometimes peacekeepers stepped in but u
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