Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis
Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and
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John B. Guerard, Jr.
Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis
John B. Guerard, Jr. McKinley Capital Management, LLC Anchorage, AK, USA
ISBN 978-1-4614-5238-6 ISBN 978-1-4614-5239-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-5239-3 Springer New York Heidelberg Dordrecht London Library of Congress Control Number: 2012952930 # Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. Exempted from this legal reservation are brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the Copyright Law of the Publisher’s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Permissions for use may be obtained through RightsLink at the Copyright Clearance Center. Violations are liable to prosecution under the respective Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication, neither the authors nor the editors nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility for any errors or omissions that may be made. The publisher makes no warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
Preface
An Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis The objective of this proposed text is a 250 page introductory financial forecasting text that exposes the reader to applications of financial forecasting and the use of financial forecasts in making business decisions. The primary forecasts examined in this text are earnings per shares (eps). This text will make extensive use of I/B/E/S data, both historic income statement and balance sheet data and analysts’ forecasts of eps. We calculate financial ratios that are useful in creating portfolios that have generated statistically significant excess returns in the world of business. The intended audience is investment students in universities and investment professionals who are not familiar with many applications of financial forecasting. This text is a data-oriented t
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