Investigating an assessment model of system oil leakage considering failure dependence
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Investigating an assessment model of system oil leakage considering failure dependence Guojin Qin 1,2 & Peng Zhang 3 & Yihuan Wang 1,4 Received: 13 April 2020 / Accepted: 2 July 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Corrosion has made petrochemical infrastructure becomes a significant hazard of the surrounding environment. It is an excellent approach to reduce the risk of environmental pollution by improving the accuracy of determining the leakage probability of the equipment system. In this work, a reliability-based methodology was proposed to assess the system leakage probability with multiple pipe segments under the common cause failure (CCF). Specifically, the existence of FD between the pipe segments was examined under the CCF so that a system leakage assessment model was developed considering the FD. Thereby a novelty corrosion-induced leakage risk management framework was developed. After leakage evaluation for an oil pipeline, it was found that the results obtained were too conservative if ignoring FD, which will develop a wasteful maintenance plan. Overall, the findings in this work may be an opportunity for managers to improve maintenance efficiency. Keywords Pipeline system . Leakage probability . Common cause failure . Failure dependence . Environmental risk
Annotation symbol Asys Ai B d(t) d0 Δd D
The event of pipeline system in a safe state The event of pipeline unit in a safe state, i = 1, 2, ⋯, n The event of the pipeline system considering failure dependence in a safe state The maximum defect depth at t, mm The initial depth of defect, mm The difference of defect depth between the two inspections, mm The pipe diameter, mm
Responsible Editor: Marcus Schulz * Guojin Qin [email protected] 1
School of Mechatronic Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, Sichuan, China
2
Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada
3
School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, Sichuan, China
4
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada
f(•) F(•) G(t) k(t) L(t) L0 ΔL p(t) M(t) Pf(•) r Rsys Ri R(t) S(t) Δt vd vL w xi, yi δ(t)
The probability density function The cumulative distribution function The strength of the structure at t Limit state equation at t The length of corrosion defect at t, mm The initial length of defects, mm The difference of defect length between the two inspections, mm Internal pressure of the pipeline segment at t, MPa Folias factor at t The leakage probability of pipeline; Correlation coefficient between random variables The reliability of the pipeline system The reliability of the ith unit The reliability of the pipeline at t The stress of the structure at t The interval of the two inspections, a The depth growth rate, mm·a−1 The length growth rate, mm·a−1 The wall thickness of the pipeline, mm A group of observed values of correlated random variables Residual strengt
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