Kenya: Sharing the news
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Local/Global Encounters
Kenya: Sharing the news
BETTY MAINA AND KATINDI SIVI
ABSTRACT Betty Maina and Katindi Sivi describe the dissemination process of the Kenya Scenarios undertaken in Kenya from 1998 to 2000 by Society for International Development SID and Institute for Economic Affairs IEA. Its success and interest throughout Kenya led to a follow-up by IEA, The National Vision project, in order to see how the Flying Geese, the most hopeful of the scenarios developed and the one that attracted the most interest by the public, could be made to work. KEYWORDS vision; leadership; theatre workshops; public interest; social reform
Kenya at the Crossroads: Scenarios for our future Between October1998 and March 2000, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) in collaboration with the Society for International Development (SID) contacted a scenarios planning process that explored the complex inter-relationship and dynamics of development and Kenya’s social and political evolution as a nation state. Following a set of research and scenarios building exercises, the project elaborated four possible pathways into Kenya’s future depending on the interplay between political and economic reforms. The scenarios identified were: El Ni•o, a scenario of decline and disintegration as a result of no political or economic reforms which leads to ethnic and regional balkanization of the country. Maendeleo, an economic reform scenario that envisions a technocratic approach. It forecast initial rapid gains but accompanied by severe inequalities and instability, which ultimately succumbs, to the discontent of the excluded. Katiba, a scenario that saw institutional transformation as the key to reform, but which also depicted instability and little economic improvement. It paints a picture of Kenya developing locally responsive and representative institutions but trapping itself in poverty for several decades. Flying Geese a scenario that involves simultaneous economic, political and institutional transformation of the country, resulting in inclusive democracy and economic growth. It paints a picture of high productivity, equitable and politically stable society, but through a challenging transition. Flying Geese scenario would also result from the energies and focus of a leadership armed with a clear vision of where Kenya ought to be and what it shall take to get there. Development (2004) 47(4), 82–86. doi:10.1057/palgrave.development.1100075
Maina and Sivi: Kenya: Sharing the news Disseminating the Kenya scenarios Scenarios building exercises usually involve highlevel corporate strategizing rather than public mobilization. The assumption tends to be that stakeholders have the ability to make choices once options are made clear to them. In the corporate world, top-level managers are exposed to a variety of options from which they make informed decisions that then determine the course of the company’s operations. In the case of the Kenya scenarios as a public interest exercise was somewhat different. Key to the process was dissem
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