Linkages between Economic Growth and Population Ageing with a Knowledge Spillover Effect
- PDF / 452,886 Bytes
- 20 Pages / 439.37 x 666.142 pts Page_size
- 38 Downloads / 223 Views
Linkages between Economic Growth and Population Ageing with a Knowledge Spillover Effect Shrabanti Maity 1
& Anup
Sinha 2
Received: 23 July 2019 / Accepted: 30 September 2020/ # Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Currently, the natural demographic process ageing becomes a worldwide phenomenon. The United Nations recognizes any country as “ageing” or “greying nation” if the share of the elderly in the total population of the concerned nation exceeds 7%. According to census 2001 and 2011, 7.47% and 8.60%, respectively, of Indians were elderly. Thus, the ageing process in India was initiated since 2001. Undoubtedly, it has a serious implication on the economic growth process. With this backdrop, the present study aims to investigate the linkages between population ageing and economic growth in India. In conjunction with this, the study also explores the ascendency of the knowledge spillover on the footprint of population ageing on economic growth in India. The study is based on the “World Bank” data. The standard econometric tool of “Granger causality test” based “VECM” setting is utilized to scrutinize the unidirectional causality between ageing and economic growth. The empirical results divulge that population ageing is negatively related to economic growth. But interestingly, “knowledge spillover” can effectively marginalize the adverse consequences of population ageing on economic growth. The originality of the study is not only in orchestrating the problem but also propounding the potential solution to cope with the scar of ageing on the economy. Moreover, the study is unique in itself as it considers the globally recognized young economy, India, to find the connotation of population ageing on economic growth. Because of that, the furnished solution is applicable to all countries irrespective of their demographic and economic position. Keywords Economic growth . Population ageing . Knowledge spillover effect . Granger
causality and VECM JEL Classification C5 . J1 . J14 . J18 . O4
* Shrabanti Maity [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Journal of the Knowledge Economy
An Overview India has experienced more distinct economic growth in the last few decades. According to the World Bank (2018), India will continue to remain the fastest-growing major economy in the world in 2018–2019. During the ongoing financial year, 2018–2019, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow at the rate of 7.3%, while China expects to register a much lower growth rate, viz., 6.3%. The Indian economy is regaining after a temporary slowdown due to demonetization and the implementation of “goods and services tax” (GST) (World Bank 2018). Both higher consumption and investment play as a catalyst for India’s remarkable economic growth. Nevertheless, the issue of the impact of demographic age structure on India’s economic growth gets less attention as India has not yet become an ageing society. Population ageing is the worldw
Data Loading...
