Low Carbon Energy Systems in China: Visioning Regional Cooperation Through the Belt and Road
China’s energy consumption growth is slowing down with the shifting to “new normal” of China’s economy. The contradiction between energy supply and demand has been greatly alleviated. With the strengthening of improving local air quality and combating cli
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Low Carbon Energy Systems in China: Visioning Regional Cooperation Through the Belt and Road Zhu Yuezhong, Tian Zhiyu, Liu Jianguo, Chao Feng and Liang Qi
2.1
Introduction: Economic, Energy and Emission Profile
In 2014, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) exceeded USD 10 trillion1 and the per capita GDP approached USD 8,000 (2015a). From 2012 onwards, the economic growth rate steps into a new stage within 7–8 % after a high-speed development with nearly 10 % annual growth in the past 30 years. It marks that the form of economic growth has shifted from the extensive to the intensive type; and the latter type pays more attention to quality and efficiency, which is expected to be the “new normal”. Under this background, the energy sector, the underpinning of the economic development, also exhibits new signs such as slowing energy consumption growth, narrowing energy supply and demand gap, initial energy mix adjustment and accelerated decline of energy intensity and carbon intensity.
2.1.1
Trends of Economic Growth and Energy Consumption
China’s energy consumption entered into a high-growth phase in the new century with the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization. In 2005, the total primary energy consumption hit 2.36 billion tons of coal equivalent (tce), a net 1 In 2014, China’s GDP reached RMB 64.6463 trillion, about USD 17.49796 trillion, according to the official exchange rate.
Z. Yuezhong (&) T. Zhiyu L. Jianguo L. Qi Energy Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing, China e-mail: [email protected] C. Feng China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing, China © Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2016 V. Anbumozhi et al. (eds.), Investing on Low-Carbon Energy Systems, DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-0761-3_2
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Table 2.1 China’s energy consumption elasticity coefficient in different times GDP growth (%) 1978–1980 1980–1985 1985–1990 1990–1995 1995–2000 2000–2005 2005–2010 2010–2013 Source NBS
7.7 10.7 7.9 12.3 8.6 9.8 11.2 8.2 (2015)
Energy consumption growth (%)
Elasticity coefficient of energy consumption
2.7 4.9 5.2 5.9 2.1 10.2 6.6 4.9
0.35 0.46 0.66 0.48 0.24 1.04 0.59 0.6
increase of 61.2 % compared with that in 2000. The incremental energy consumption during the 10th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period exceeded the increment combined of the past two decades, creating the fastest five-year increase since the reform and opening up in 1978 (Table 2.1). In the 11th FYP period, in order to improve energy efficiency, the Chinese government set a target of cutting energy intensity by 20 %, owing to a double-digit GDP growth in this period, the national energy consumption still climbed to 3.25 billion tce in 2010,2 and a net annual increase of nearly 180 million tce was also observed (Fig. 2.1). It is noteworthy that the annual energy consumption growth slowed down during 2012–2014 against the background of declining GDP growth to below 8 % since the 2008 global financial crisis and especially 2010. In 2014, the energy consumption grow
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