Macroeconomic Theory Fluctuations, Inflation and Growth in Closed an

Macroeconomics is the application of economic theory to the study of the economy’s growth, cycle and price-level determination. Macroeconomics takes account of stylized facts observed in the real world and builds theoretical frameworks to explain such fac

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Macroeconomic Theory Fluctuations, Inflation and Growth in Closed and Open Economies

Macroeconomic Theory

Fernando de Holanda Barbosa

Macroeconomic Theory Fluctuations, Inflation and Growth in Closed and Open Economies

Fernando de Holanda Barbosa FGV EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

ISBN 978-3-319-92131-0 ISBN 978-3-319-92132-7 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92132-7

(eBook)

Library of Congress Control Number: 2018942891 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2018 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature, under the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

“IT DOES REQUIRE MATURITY TO REALIZE THAT MODELS ARE TO BE USED BUT NOT TO BE BELIEVED” [Theil (1971), p.VI]. “THE PROOF OF THE PUDDING IS IN THE EATING.” “ANY POLICY-MAKER OR ADVISER WHO THINKS HE IS NOT USING A MODEL IS KIDDING BOTH HIMSELF AND US” [Tobin, James, quoted by Lombra and Moran (1980), p. 41]. “. . . IN THE DYNAMIC FIELD OF SCIENCE THE MOST IMPORTANT GOAL IS TO BE SEMINAL AND PATHBREAKING, TO LOOK FORWARD BOLDLY EVEN IF IMPERFECTLY” [Samuelson (1971), p X-XI]. “IT IS MUCH EASIER TO DEMONSTRATE TECHNICAL VIRTUOSITY THAN TO MAKE A CONTRIBUTION TO KNOWLEDGE. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS ALSO MUCH LESS USEFUL” [Summers (1991) p. 18].

“GENTLEMEN, IT IS A DISAGREEABLE CUSTOM TO WHICH ONE IS TO EASILY LED BY THE HARSHNESS OF THE DISCUSSIONS, TO ASSUME EVIL INTENTIONS. IT IS NECESSARY TO BE GRACIOUS AS TO INTENTIONS; ONE SHOULD BELIEVE THEM GOOD, AND APPARENTLY THEY ARE; BUT WE DO NOT HAVE TO BE GRACIOUS AT ALL TO INCONSISTENT LOGIC OR TO ABSURD REASONING. BAD LOGICIANS HAVE COMMITTED MORE INVOLUNTARY CRIMES THAN BAD MEN HAVE DONE INTENTIONALLY” [Pierre S. du Pont, quoted in Friedman (1994), p. 265].

Preface

This book grew