Mapping the technology evolution path: a novel model for dynamic topic detection and tracking
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Mapping the technology evolution path: a novel model for dynamic topic detection and tracking Huailan Liu1 · Zhiwang Chen1 · Jie Tang2 · Yuan Zhou3 · Sheng Liu1 Received: 9 November 2019 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Identifying the evolution path of a research field is essential to scientific and technological innovation. There have been many attempts to identify the technology evolution path based on the topic model or social networks analysis, but many of them had deficiencies in methodology. First, many studies have only considered a single type of information (text or citation information) in scientific literature, which may lead to incomplete technology path mapping. Second, the number of topics in each period cannot be determined automatically, making dynamic topic tracking difficult. Third, data mining methods fail to be effectively combined with visual analysis, which will affect the efficiency and flexibility of mapping. In this study, we developed a method for mapping the technology evolution path using a novel non-parametric topic model, the citation involved Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (CIHDP), to achieve better topic detection and tracking of scientific literature. To better present and analyze the path, D3.js is used to visualize the splitting and fusion of the evolutionary path. We used this novel model to mapping the artificial intelligence research domain, through a successful mapping of the evolution path, the proposed method’s validity and merits are shown. After incorporating the citation information, we found that the CIHDP can be mapping a complete path evolution process and had better performance than the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process and LDA. This method can be helpful for understanding and analyzing the development of technical topics. Moreover, it can be well used to map the science or technology of the innovation ecosystem. It may also arouse the interest of technology evolution path researchers or policymakers. Keywords Technology evolution path · Technology path mapping · Topic model · Dynamic topic detection · Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (HDP) · Path splitting and fusion
* Yuan Zhou [email protected] 1
School of Mechanical Science and Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
2
Department of Computer Science and Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
3
School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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Vol.:(0123456789)
Scientometrics
Introduction The technology evolution path describes the emergence, transition, and extinction of a subject in this field, which can help researchers understand the history and current situation of the research field so that they can quickly identify research hotspots and gaps. In the study of technological evolution path, discovery and presentation of topic information is a crucial problem. In recent years, an increasing number of researchers have begun to use machine-learning methods to identify the development of specific rese
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