Marine accident learning with fuzzy cognitive maps (MALFCMs) and Bayesian networks
- PDF / 568,683 Bytes
- 10 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 45 Downloads / 122 Views
ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE
Marine accident learning with fuzzy cognitive maps (MALFCMs) and Bayesian networks Beatriz Navas de Maya 1
&
Ahmed O. Babaleye 1 & Rafet E. Kurt 1
Received: 17 June 2019 / Revised: 14 August 2019 / Accepted: 15 August 2019 # The Author(s) 2019
Abstract Addressing safety is considered a priority starting from the design stage of any vessel until end-of-life. However, despite all safety measures developed, accidents are still occurring. This is a consequence of the complex nature of shipping accidents where too many factors are involved including human factors. Therefore, there is a need for a practical method, which can identify the importance weightings for each contributing factor involved in accidents. As a result, by identifying the importance weightings for each factor, risk assessments can be informed, and risk control options can be developed and implemented more effectively. To this end, Marine Accident Learning with Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (MALFCM) approach incorporated with Bayesian networks (BNs) is suggested and applied in this study. The MALFCM approach is based on the concept and principles of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) to represent the interrelations amongst accident contributor factors. Thus, MALFCM allows identifying the importance weightings for each factor involved in an accident, which can serve as prior failure probabilities within BNs. Hence, in this study, a specific accident will be investigated with the proposed MALFCM approach. Keywords Maritime accidents . Maritime safety . Maritime accident learning with fuzzy cognitive maps (MALFCMs) . Human factors . Bayesian networks (BNs)
Introduction The analysis of historical accident data has revealed that maritime accidents have been traditionally a concern for the shipping industry, as they incur into significant economic consequences, social, and environmental impact (Eliopoulou et al. 2016). Therefore, aiming to reduce the accident rate, maritime organizations are directing efforts into the continuous development and implementation of safety measures, which overall aim to improve maritime safety significantly. Nevertheless, despite all the efforts, maritime accidents are still happening and they remain a major concern when around 90% of world trading is still carried out by shipping companies (Chauvin et al. 2013). Moreover, due to inconsistent methods followed during accident investigations, and the additional complexity of identifying all the variables involved into an accident
* Beatriz Navas de Maya [email protected] 1
University of Strathclyde, 100 Montrose St, Glasgow, G4 0LZ, UK
scenario, it is extremely challenging to integrate lessons learnt from past accidents into safety assessments. According to Kristiansen (2013) there is no clear answer to why accidents happen., as they are complex processes, in which there is no a single factor solely responsible for the accident outcome. However, if it is possible to identify and cleverly measure accident-contributing factors, efforts can be focu
Data Loading...
