Market Aspects
This chapter describes the strategic importance of aerospace, the link between military and civil transport, the strong US dominance in the civil market in the 1960s and 1970s and the creation of Airbus in Europe, leading finally to a duopoly in the civil
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Market Aspects
Abstract This chapter describes the strategic importance of aerospace, the link between military and civil transport, the strong US dominance in the civil market in the 1960s and 1970s and the creation of Airbus in Europe, leading finally to a duopoly in the civil transport market for aircraft with more than 120 seats. Specific aspects of the aeronautical industry are the very long development cycle of an aircraft, where invested money will only be recovered after 12–20 years. National support is therefore needed, leading however to a constant fight between the US and Europe in front of the World Trade Organization WTO. New entrants are on the horizon to challenge the duopoly from the lower market area. Market forecast methods are described in detail and the outlook from industry for the next 20 years is presented, identifying a huge growth market with a doubling of the number of aircraft for this period. The air freight market with its specific elements is outlined, and the refurbishing of elder passenger aircraft into freighter aircraft is a main driver in the passenger market. Reflections about the importance of cost and commonality aspects conclude the chapter.
3.1
The Strategic Importance of Aerospace
Following the historical development of aerospace activities, it is obvious that aviation and space have become after WWII a very dominant area for all big countries, especially for the four allied countries, the winner of this war. During the cold war (between 1948 and 1990) military and space developments were in the focus of the two dominating blocks, the Western NATO block with the United States of America and its European Allies on one side and the Eastern bloc with the Soviet Union and its allies on the other side. Big military budgets were available allowing the development of continuously novel aeronautical and space vehicles. Focus may have been strictly on military usage, but technologies to improve the thrust to weight ratio for military aircraft could also be directly applied to civil aircraft vehicles and the big aeronautical industry in the USA with Boeing, Lockheed, Douglas, © Springer-Verlag Wien 2016 D. Schmitt and V. Gollnick, Air Transport System, DOI 10.1007/978-3-7091-1880-1_3
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3 Market Aspects
Fig. 3.1 Boeing B747—100
Mc Donnell, and others who looked to how they could improve their civil air transport business by using and transferring all their military aerospace technology. As stated in [1] the big engine manufacturers in the US developed their first big engines for the B747 and other large aircraft like DC-10 and L-1011 on the basis of a military core engine. The CF6 engine from GE as well as the PW JT9D engine from Pratt & Whitney largely profited from military programmes in the US, especially the CX-HLS (Heavy Logistics System), where a specification for a heavy military transport aircraft was awarded to Boeing, Douglas and Lockheed in 1964. Lockheed finally won the production contract in Sept. 1965 and started the development of the big military transport C5. Boe
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