Market Response Models Econometric and Time Series Analysis
From 1976 to the beginning of the millennium—covering the quarter-century life span of this book and its predecessor—something remarkable has happened to market response research: it has become practice. Academics who teach in professional fields, like we
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INTERNATIONAL SERIES IN QUANTITATIVE MARKETING Series Editor: Jehoshua Eliashberg The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, Pennsylvania USA Other books in the series: Mahajan, V., Muller, E. and Wind, Y.: New-Product Diffusion Models Wierenga, B. and van Bruggen, G.: Marketing Management Support Systems: Principles, Tools, and Implementation Leeflang, P., Wittink, D., Wedel, M. and Naert, P.: Building Models for Marketing Decisions Wedel, M. and Kamakura, W.G.: Market Segmentation, 2nd Ed Wedel, M. and Kamakura, W.G.: Market Segmentation Nguyen, D.: Marketing Decisions Under Uncertainty Laurent, G., Lilien, G.L., Pras, B.: Research Traditions in Marketing Erickson, G.: Dynamic Models of Advertising Competition McCann, J. and Gallagher, J.: Expert Systems for Scanner Data Environments Hanssens, D., Parsons, L., and Schultz, R.: Market Response Models: Econometric and Time Series Analysis Cooper, L. and Nakanishi, M.: Market Share Analysis
MARKET RESPONSE MODELS Econometric and Time Series Analysis Second Edition
by
Dominique M. Hanssens University of California, Los Angeles
Leonard J. Parsons Georgia Institute of Technology
Randall L. Schultz University of Iowa
KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS NEW YORK, BOSTON, DORDRECHT, LONDON, MOSCOW
eBook ISBN: Print ISBN:
0-306-47594-4 0-7923-7826-1
©2002 Kluwer Academic Publishers New York, Boston, Dordrecht, London, Moscow Print ©2001 Kluwer Academic Publishers Dordrecht All rights reserved No part of this eBook may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, recording, or otherwise, without written consent from the Publisher Created in the United States of America Visit Kluwer Online at: and Kluwer's eBookstore at:
http://kluweronline.com http://ebooks.kluweronline.com
To Benjamin, Elisabeth, Kate, Nicholas and Patrick, with love, DMH To Piet Vanden Abeele, LJP To my granddaughters, Delaney Schultz and Reilly Jackman, RLS
CONTENTS Preface I.
xi
INTRODUCTION 1. Response Models for Marketing Management
1 3
Modeling Marketing Systems Empirical Response Models Marketing Management Tasks Marketing Information Model-Based Planning and Forecasting Plan of the Book
4 8 10 13 16 19
2. Markets, Data, and Sales Drivers
23
Markets Data Response Measures and Drivers Aggregation Road Map of Market Response Modeling Techniques
24 25 48 70 75
II. MARKET RESPONSE IN STATIONARY MARKETS
87
3. Design of Static Response Models Relations Among Variables Functional Forms Aggregation of Relations
89 90 94 129
viii
4. Design of Dynamic Response Models Specification Issues in Dynamic Models Discrete Time Models of Carryover Shape of the Response Function Revisited Reaction Functions Temporal Aggregation Revisited Marketing Models and Prior Knowledge
139 140 142 156 166 173 178
5. Parameter Estimation and Model Testing
183
Classification of Variables Estimation Testing Flexible Functional Forms Model Selection Confirmatory vs. Exploratory Data Analysis
184 185 201 225 229 240
III. MARKET RESPONSE IN EVOLVING MARK
