Materials in a steady state world
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Materials in a Steady State World
HARVEY BROOKS
With the r i s e in public c o n c e r n o v e r the d e p l e t i o n of n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s , the s o c i a l r o l e of the m a t e r i a l s i n d u s t r y has c o m e up f o r c l o s e r s c r u t i n y . W o r l d m o d e l s such a s t h o s e being d e v e l o p e d by P r o f e s s o r F o r r e s t e r and his c o l l e a g u e s at M . I . T . l e a v e l i t t l e r o o m f o r doubt that e c o n o m i c g r o w t h cannot c o n t i n u e f a r into the t w e n t y - f i r s t c e n t u r y without e n o r m o u s a d v a n c e s in the e c o n o m i c a l u s e and r e c y c l i n g of n o n r e n e w a b l e r e s o u r c e s . Although s t u d i e s of s p e c i f i c r e s o u r c e a v a i l a b i l i t y such a s t h o s e c a r r i e d out by R e s o u r c e s f o r the F u t u r e ind i c a t e no m a t e r i a l s c r i s i s b e f o r e the y e a r 2000, t h i s o p t i m i s t i c p i c t u r e is p r e d i c a t e d on l a r g e and continuing a d v a n c e s in m a t e r i a l s t e c h n o l o g y r a n g i n g all the way f r o m g e o p h y s i c a l exploratiola t h r o u g h the m o r e e c o n o m i c a l u s e of m a t e r i a l s in d e s i g n . T h e r e i s a s e r i o u s q u e s t i o n a s to w h e t h e r e c o n o m i c i n c e n t i v e s to p r i v a t e i n d u s t r y w i l l continue to be s u f f i c i e n t to call f o r t h the n e c e s s a r y r a t e and d i r e c t i o n of t e c h n o l o g i c a l innovation in the m a t e r i a l s field to i n s u r e the n e c e s s a r y husbanding of the w o r l d ' s r e s o u r c e s . W i d e r g o v e r n m e n t a l , and e v e n t u a l l y m u l t i n a t i o n a l i n t e r v e n t i o n in the a l l o c a t i o n of s c a r c e m a t e r i a l s r e s o u r c e s m a y b e c o m e n e c e s s a r y to s u p p l e m e n t the s i g n a l s f r o m t h e m a r k e t p l a c e which m a y not act s u f f i c i e n t l y f a r in a d v a n c e . On the o t h e r hand, t h e r e i s a g r o w i n g r e a l i z a t i o n in t h e u n d e r d e v e l o p e d w o r l d that they c o n t r o l t h e r e s o u r c e s which the d e v e l o p e d w o r l d n e e d s to f e e d its i n d u s t r i a l m a c h i n e and can i n c r e a s i n g l y set t h e i r own p r i c e s . T h i s m a y not b e wholly bad in that it w i l l tend to s t i m u l a t e m o r e innovation in the e c o n o m i c a l u s e of s c a r c e m a t e r i a l s and in the d e v e l o p m e n t of s u b s t i t u t e m a t e r i a l s . F u r t h e r m o r e in the long run it may p r o v i d e a m o r e a c c e p t a b l e way of t r a n s f e r r i n g n e e d e d f o r e i g n exchange to the l e s s - d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . The m a t e r i a l s i n d u s t r y n e e d s to f a c e up m o r e s q u a r e l y to the f u t u r e l o n g - r a n g e c h a l l e n g e p r o v i d e d by t h e u t i l i z a t i o n of m a t e r i a l s in a w o r l d in which m a t e r i a
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