Mathematical modeling study of school-based chlamydia screening: potential impact on chlamydia prevalence in interventio
- PDF / 931,202 Bytes
- 9 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 64 Downloads / 182 Views
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Mathematical modeling study of schoolbased chlamydia screening: potential impact on chlamydia prevalence in intervention schools and surrounding communities Minttu M. Rönn1* , Richard Dunville2, Li Yan Wang2, Meghan Bellerose1, Yelena Malyuta1, Nicolas A. Menzies1, Maria Aslam3, Felicia Lewis4,5, Cherie Walker-Baban5, Lenore Asbel5, Sarah Parchem6, Lisa Masinter6, Ernestina Perez7, Tom L. Gift4, Katherine Hsu8, Lisa C. Barrios2 and Joshua A. Salomon9
Abstract Background: Chlamydia screening in high schools offers a way to reach adolescents outside of a traditional clinic setting. Using transmission dynamic modeling, we examined the potential impact of high-school-based chlamydia screening programs on the burden of infection within intervention schools and surrounding communities, under varying epidemiological and programmatic conditions. Methods: A chlamydia transmission model was calibrated to epidemiological data from three different settings. Philadelphia and Chicago are two high-burden cities with existing school-based screening programs. Rural Iowa does not have an existing program but represents a low-burden setting. We modeled the effects of the two existing programs to analyze the potential influence of program coverage and student participation. All three settings were used to examine a broader set of hypothetical programs with varying coverage levels and time trends in participation. Results: In the modeled Philadelphia program, prevalence among the intervention schools’ sexually active 15–18 years old population was 4.34% (95% credible interval 3.75–4.71%)after 12 program years compared to 5.03% (4.39– 5.43%) in absence of the program. In the modeled Chicago program, prevalence was estimated as 5.97% (2.60– 7.88%) after 4 program years compared to 7.00% (3.08–9.29%) without the program. In the broader hypothetical scenarios including both high-burden and low-burden settings, impact of school-based screening programs was greater in absolute terms in the higher-prevalence settings, and benefits in the community were approximately proportional to population coverage of intervention schools. Most benefits were garnered if the student participation did not decline over time. (Continued on next page)
* Correspondence: [email protected] 1 Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, USA Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not incl
Data Loading...
