Mathematical models for devising the optimal SARS-CoV-2 strategy for eradication in China, South Korea, and Italy
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Journal of Translational Medicine Open Access
RESEARCH
Mathematical models for devising the optimal SARS‑CoV‑2 strategy for eradication in China, South Korea, and Italy Shuo Jiang1†, Qiuyue Li1†, Chaoqun Li1†, Shanshan Liu1, Xiaomeng He1, Tao Wang2, Hua Li3, Christopher Corpe4, Xiaoyan Zhang1, Jianqing Xu1 and Jin Wang1*
Abstract Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), spreads rapidly and has attracted worldwide attention. Methods: To improve the forecast accuracy and investigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2, we constructed four mathematical models to numerically estimate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the efficacy of eradication strategies. Results: Using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model, and including measures such as city closures and extended leave policies implemented by the Chinese government that effectively reduced the β value, we estimated that the β value and basic transmission number, R0, of SARS-CoV-2 was 0.476/6.66 in Wuhan, 0.359/5.03 in Korea, and 0.400/5.60 in Italy. Considering medicine and vaccines, an advanced model demonstrated that the emergence of vaccines would greatly slow the spread of the virus. Our model predicted that 100,000 people would become infected assuming that the isolation rate α in Wuhan was 0.30. If quarantine measures were taken from March 10, 2020, and the quarantine rate of α was also 0.3, then the final number of infected people was predicted to be 11,426 in South Korea and 147,142 in Italy. Conclusions: Our mathematical models indicate that SARS-CoV-2 eradication depends on systematic planning, effective hospital isolation, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, and some measures including city closures and leave policies should be implemented to ensure SARS-CoV-2 eradication. Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Mathematical models, Hospital isolation Introduction The outbreak of COVID-19 pneumonia in Wuhan, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has drawn tremendous attention around the world [1]. The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak resulted in more than 16,171,000 SARS-CoV-2 infections and over 647,350 deaths worldwide by July 25, 2020 [2]. SARS-CoV-2 has never been *Correspondence: [email protected] † Shuo Jiang, Qiuyue Li, and Chaoqun Li contributed equally to this work. 1 Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, 2901 Caolang Road, Jinshan District, Shanghai 201508, People’s Republic of China Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
found in humans before and may not be as virulent as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), but in humans, it is highly infectious. Coronaviruses (CoVs) are pathogens that can infect the respiratory, gastrointestinal, hepatic and central nervous systems of humans, livestock, birds, bats, mice and other wild animals [3, 4]. Regarding the outbreaks of SARS in 2002 and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in 2012, the possibility of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV transmission from animals to humans ha
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