Mechanisms of species range shift: germination and early survival of Great Basin bristlecone pine and limber pine

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Mechanisms of species range shift: germination and early survival of Great Basin bristlecone pine and limber pine Brian V. Smithers

&

Malcolm P. North

Received: 16 January 2020 / Accepted: 1 October 2020 # Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Abstract Aims To examine the potential mechanistic predictors of germination and first-year survival in two species of Great Basin sub-alpine trees along an elevation gradient on three soil types. Methods Using a network of experimental gardens, we sowed limber pine and Great Basin bristlecone pine along elevational gradients at three sites on three different soil types. We collected germination and first-year survival data of each species while measuring temperature, soil water content, and other environmental variables to examine the potential predictors of first-year survival in these two species. Results Thanks to consecutive anomalously wet and dry years, we found germination and first-year survival to be largely limited by soil type, soil water content, and precipitation timing. Limber pine germination and survival Responsible Editor: Rafael S. Oliveira. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s11104-020-04732-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

showed weak negative responses while bristlecone pine germination and survival showed stronger negative responses to temperature. Conclusions Young trees are more sensitive to water limitation than to temperature and soil type has a strong moderating effect on water availability. Precipitation timing affected this availability with winter snowpack being less important in establishment than summer monsoonal rain. These results point to the importance of substrate and understanding limitations on all life stages when attempting to predict species range shifts. Keywords Pinus longaeva . Pinus flexilis . Recruitment . Sub-alpine forest . Treeline . Great Basin Abbreviations GS Growing season GDD Growing degree days SWC Soil water content VWC Volumetric water content Tmax Daily maximum temperature Tmin Daily minimum temperature

B. V. Smithers Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA B. V. Smithers (*) : M. P. North Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA, USA e-mail: [email protected] M. P. North USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Mammoth Lakes, CA, USA

Introduction In response to climatic warming, species are expected to expand their ranges to higher latitudes and elevations, and contract at lower latitude and elevational range margins (Parmesan and Yohe 2003; Lenoir et al. 2008; Pauli et al. 2012; Moritz and Agudo 2013). However,

Plant Soil

biotic interactions like competition, facilitation, and priority effects are likely to affect how range shifts occur (Baumeister and Callaway 2006; Kroiss and HilleRisLambers 2014). In sub-alpine forests, downslope competitors may displace sub-alpine species through direct competition or through in