Mechanistic models supporting uncertainty quantification of water quality predictions in heterogeneous mining waste rock
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Mechanistic models supporting uncertainty quantification of water quality predictions in heterogeneous mining waste rocks: a review Muhammad Muniruzzaman1
•
Daniele Pedretti2
Accepted: 23 September 2020 Ó The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Polluted drainage from weathering of sulfide-rich waste rock deposits can cause long-term impairment to waterways and biodiversity near mining sites. Mechanistic models represent established tools to support the predictions of the quantity and quality of waste rock drainage, and their associated risks. Yet, model-based predictions in typical waste rock systems are ubiquitously uncertain because of the strongly heterogeneous nature of these waste deposits. Embedding heterogeneity within predictive modeling is complicated by the magnitude and level of knowledge of the waste rock heterogeneity, and the large number of scale-dependent parameters feeding the model equations. This review encompasses deterministic and stochastic modeling approaches that emphasize consolidated tools and emerging modeling solutions to deal with heterogeneity for the modeling of waste rocks. Physical (e.g., variability of texture, hydraulic and pneumatic properties), geochemical (e.g., variability of mineralogy and kinetic parameters), and thermal heterogeneities are evaluated. The review points out the importance of stochastic modeling as a fundamental approach to embed uncertainty in long-term modelbased decisions. Regulators and decision makers must be convinced of the benefit of using stochastic modeling, which is still considered to belong mainly to the academic sphere. Keywords Waste rocks Heterogeneity Mechanistic modeling Stochastic modeling Acid mine drainage Reactive transport modeling
1 Introduction Mine waste management represents one of the biggest environmental and socio-economic concerns for mining operators, governments and citizens. A critical concern is related to the weathering of sulfide-rich mining byproducts such as waste rocks and tailings, which can generate a toxic leachate enriched in metals and metalloids. This drainage is very often called acid rock drainage (ARD). The formation, fate and management of ARD, including passive and active remediation approaches, has been addressed in multiple & Daniele Pedretti [email protected] Muhammad Muniruzzaman [email protected] 1
Geological Survey of Finland, Vuorimiehentie 5, 02151 Espoo, Finland
2
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra ‘‘A. Desio’’, Universita` degli Studi di Milano, 20133 Milan, Italy
reviews (Blowes et al. 2003; Dold 2017; Muniruzzaman et al. 2018; Nordstrom et al. 2015; Nordstrom and Alpers 1999; Plumlee 1999; Wolkersdorfer et al. 2020; Wolkersdorfer and Bowell 2004), guidelines (EPA 1994; European Commission 2009; INAP-GARD 2014; MEND 1998; Price 2009; Sobek et al. 1978) and books (Blowes et al. 2014; Lottermoser 2010). The deleterious impact of ARD on water resources, and in turn on public health and aquatic ecosystems, is well known and studied. From a health risk perspective, AR
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