Modeling radon time series on the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkiye: Fourier transforms and Monte Carlo simulations
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Modeling radon time series on the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkiye: Fourier transforms and Monte Carlo simulations Ahmad Muhammad1 · Fatih Külahcı1 · Pishtiwan Akram1 Received: 3 March 2020 / Accepted: 21 July 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Time series studies depend mostly on stochastic models for radon seasonal, annual or temporal variability explanations. Others solve radon transport steady state equation analytically to explain radon variability with soil depth. In order to understand radon variability comprehensively, there is the need for a model which encapsulates most required information about its seasonal variability from different aspects. In this paper, soil radon time series is modeled on the North Anatolian Fault Zone in Turkiye. The general PDE representing radon soil dynamics and boundary conditions is employed successfully through a hybrid regression model, which captures and forecasts radon seasonal anomaly as well as its depth profile. An efficient model can be used to estimate other radon-related variables like diffusion rate and velocity. The model evaluation criteria facilitated the forecast of almost 86% variation of radon concentration with an RMSE value of 9.4 Bqm−3, which is reasonable considering the nature of data used. This model is simple and can provide a realistic statistical outcome on any radon data. The relationship between Rn and soil temperature was also investigated. Radon seasonal anomaly is observed to attain its maximum and minimum values in summer and winter seasons. A solid correlation is obtained between radon and soil temperature at various depths. The radon anomaly in normal conditions is found to correlate strongly with the model. Monte Carlo simulation procedure is affected by taking the mean of 300 simulation paths within ± 2𝜎 from the regression curve with practically acceptable results. Keywords Radon time series · Monte Carlo · Forecasting · Earthquake precursors · Soil temperature · Fourier transforms
* Fatih Külahcı [email protected] Ahmad Muhammad [email protected] Pishtiwan Akram [email protected] 1
Faculty of Science, Department of Physics, Nuclear Physics Division, Fırat University, TR‑23119 Elazig, Turkey
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction 222
Rn is well-known for its nature as an inert gas, one of the reasons for its popularity is its ubiquity and the role it plays as a key contributor to background radiation in the lower troposphere. The alpha particles associated with its decay chain pose health concern to humans, which can result from long-term inhalation or ingestion into the body (Ongori et al. 2015; Samet 1989; Al-Zoughool and Krewski 2009; Jönsson 1995; Blomberg 2019). This can be regarded as one of the reasons making it popular and widely studied by researchers. However, that is not always the case with radon. Its significance can be found in various other disciplines such as atmospheric sciences, oceanography, pollution studies, atmospheric electric field studies to mention a few (J
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