Modeling the effects of port disasters
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Modeling the effects of port disasters J o m o n A l i y a s P a u l a , * a n d M i c h a e l J. M a l o n i b a
Department of Economics, Finance, & Quantitative Analysis, Kennesaw State University, 1000 Chastain Road #0403, Kennesaw, Georgia 30144, USA. b Department of Management & Entrepreneurship, Kennesaw State University, 1000 Chastain Road #0404, Kennesaw, Georgia 30144, USA. *Corresponding author.
A b s t r a c t Weather or terrorism-related disasters at seaports can lead to significant economic losses from vessel and cargo delays. In times of such disasters, port capacities and optimal shipment routings would change rapidly, requiring near real-time analyses for planning response operations. To address this challenge, we offer a decision support system to help port networks analyze disaster response scenarios. As part of the model, an algorithm routes arriving ships to ports to optimize the use of network capacity with respect to ocean and inland transportation, port and inventory capital costs. To reflect changing port congestion conditions, port capacities are dynamically updated in the algorithm by regression-based parametric metamodels derived from the results of a simulation model. Demonstrating application through case studies of the North American container port network, we illustrate the magnitude of cost increases from disaster-based port shutdowns and highlight the practical need for coordinated, network-wide planning for disaster response. Maritime Economics & Logistics (2010) 12, 127–146. doi:10.1057/mel.2010.2
Keywords: container port; simulation; decision support systems; disaster planning; transportation; security
Introduction Seaports support global seaborne trade of seven billion metric tons, including more than 300 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent unit containers) (AAPA, 2008), and such cargo volumes are increasing rapidly at more than 8 per cent r 2010 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1479-2931 Maritime Economics & Logistics Vol. 12, 2, 127–146 www.palgrave-journals.com/mel/
Paul and Maloni
annually. Yet, port capacity expansion has not matched this volume growth in some areas of the world, such as the United States, leading to relatively tight capacity throughout the container port network (Maloni and Jackson, 2005). As such, there is little excess network-wide capacity to handle redirected cargo flows caused by disruptions at ports. Therefore, shutdowns of one or more ports stemming from hurricanes, terrorist attacks or labor incidents might lead to significant cargo congestion problems throughout an entire port network. As one historical example, a 2002 labor dispute at US west coast ports caused an estimated US$1 billion in economic losses per day (Mongelluzzo, 2007) and created a backlog of 200 ships after just 10 days (Isidore, 2002). The research presented here studies the impacts of potential disruptions on a port network. The objective is to provide the foundations of a decision support system (DSS) to be used in practice by government agencies or port consortiums to both un
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