Multi-objective optimization modelling for analysing sustainable development goals of Nigeria: Agenda 2030
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Multi‑objective optimization modelling for analysing sustainable development goals of Nigeria: Agenda 2030 Umar Muhammad Modibbo1,2 · Irfan Ali1 · Aquil Ahmed1 Received: 12 June 2020 / Accepted: 28 September 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Sustainability of developmental goals remains the significant challenges for every nation in the world. In an environment of flexibility coupled with multiple and conflicting objectives on social economic, energy and environmental issues, a fuzzy goal programming approach proves to be suitable in helping policymakers for attaining their aspirational goals as it takes imprecise information into account. In this study, we proposed a multi-objective goal programming model to analyse the socio-economic, environmental and energy sector of Nigeria. The sectors relating to the gross domestic product, electricity consumption, employment and greenhouse gases emissions are regarded as the key sustainable development goals (SDGs) for the year 2030, upon which all other goals depend on directly or indirectly. We considered four scenarios based on decision-makers’ value judgments using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Moreover, we have developed a weighted fuzzy goal programming model for the SDGs incorporating the AHP. The model reveals that individual goals are achievable at 81, 83, and 89 per cents, respectively, while the overall achievement function indicated only 73 per cent achievement is possible. The optimal employment for the various economic sectors is also computed at various tolerance values and presented alongside Pareto objective values. The results yielded an economic justification mathematically and provided insight for critical and future strategic planning towards achieving sustainable economic policies. The models can be replicated in the context of other nations in addressing long-term socio-economic planning and indispensable requirements for renewable sources inclusion to satisfy future energy demand economically without environmental damages. Keywords Analytic Hierarchy Process · Fuzzy Goal Programming · Sustainable Development Goals · Socio-economic Policies · Strategic Planning · Pareto Optimal Solution * Irfan Ali [email protected] Umar Muhammad Modibbo [email protected] Aquil Ahmed [email protected] 1
Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, India
2
Modibbo Adama University of Technology, Yola, Nigeria
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1 Introduction Nigeria is a vast nation with a total landmark of 923,768 square kilometres (356,667 square miles) of which 910,771 square kilometres (351,649 square miles) of the total area is a land, i.e. 98.6% . The population of the country is over 190 million, with an annual growth rate of 2.60% . The country is ranked the seventh position in the world and projected to become third by the year 2050. Forty-six million of the people are middle class and occupied the largest compared to other African nations. Nigeria has the largest m
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