Narrative foresight in technical organizations: epistemological and methodological contributions from a practice of scen
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Narrative foresight in technical organizations: epistemological and methodological contributions from a practice of scenario method in Argentina María Mercedes Patrouilleau 1
Received: 15 November 2016 / Accepted: 27 April 2017 # The Author(s) 2017. This article is an open access publication
Abstract The following paper explores the experience of narrative Foresight applied to the use of the scenario method in Argentina in the light of the contributions of critical Future Studies concerning the narrative dimension in the last years. This research is specifically focused on analyzing applications of the scenario method in an institute of technology development in Argentina (BInstituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria^) using the causal layered analysis as a method of examination and adopting the narrative Foresight approach. We analyze how the narrative approach permeates the scenario method in the process of development, thus increasing the potential usefulness and impact of the method. Moreover, we also reflect on the utility of this approach in order to increase the strategic vision of complex organizations which are shaped, to a great extent, by linear schemes of thought where the empiric dimension of reality operates with a value of truth. Keywords Scenario method . Narrative foresight . Technical organizations . Causal layered analysis
Introduction: context and method of analysis In 2006, the National Institute of Agricultural Technology (INTA) began to resort to the Foresight discipline applied to A preliminary version in Spanish of this paper was published by ECLAC, in its series Seminars and Conferences [1]. This English version contains further conceptual development, in particular, on the link between scenario method and narrative approach. * María Mercedes Patrouilleau [email protected] 1
National Institute of Agricultural Technology (INTA) [Spanish Acronym], Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina
processes of innovation and development. The Institute had some background experience in approaching future with certain methodologies applied to sectoral, territorial or strategic planning, and with simulation models applied to certain areas of knowledge (meteorology, biodiversity and econometrics). The first steps in the discipline are particularly special because they were initially oriented to understand the macro processes which affected and conditioned the agricultural development in Argentina, an initiative mainly encouraged by INTA’s own authorities. In order to contextualize the case, we should start by saying that INTA is a public, state-run Argentinean institution for the technological development in the agricultural sector founded in 1956. One of its distinctive features is that the Institution is present through different agencies across the whole national territory. INTA works on technological development (which is mostly managed by experimental agricultural stations), as well as on research, in its most Bbasic^ forms (which is performed in Research Institutes
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