New Technologies and Deterrence: Artificial Intelligence and Adversarial Behaviour
Offering a critical synthesis of extant insights into technological developments in AI and their potential ramifications for international relations and deterrence postures, this chapter argues that AI risks influencing military deterrence and coercion in
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New Technologies and Deterrence: Artificial Intelligence and Adversarial Behaviour Alex Wilner and Casey Babb
Contents 21.1 Introduction...................................................................................................................... 21.2 The Promises and Pitfalls of Hyper-Coercion ................................................................ 21.3 Commercial Dual-Use AI as Coercive Offset ................................................................ 21.4 Autonomous Weapons and the Advent of Saturation Tactics ....................................... 21.5 Leveraging Moral Asymmetries for Coercive Gain ....................................................... 21.6 Enhancing the Credibility of Military Action................................................................. 21.7 Conclusions: Next Steps for AI and Deterrence ............................................................ References ..................................................................................................................................
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Abstract Offering a critical synthesis of extant insights into technological developments in AI and their potential ramifications for international relations and deterrence postures, this chapter argues that AI risks influencing military deterrence and coercion in unique ways: it may alter cost-benefit calculations by removing the fog of war, by superficially imposing rationality on political decisions, and by diminishing the human cost of military engagement. It may recalibrate the balance between offensive and defensive measures, tipping the scales in favour of pre-emption, and undermine existing assumptions imbedded in both conventional and nuclear deterrence. AI might altogether remove human emotions and eliminate other biological limitations from the practice of coercion. It may provide users the ability to collect, synthesize, and act upon real-time intelligence from several disparate sources, augmenting the certainty and severity of punishment strategies, both in theatre and online, compressing the distance between intelligence, political A. Wilner (&) C. Babb The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada e-mail: [email protected] C. Babb e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s) 2021 F. Osinga and T. Sweijs (eds.), NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020, NL ARMS, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-6265-419-8_21
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decisions, and coercive action. As a result, AI may quicken the overall pace of action across all domains of coercion, in conflict, crisis, and war, and within the related subfields of national security, counterterrorism, counter-crime, and counter-espionage.
Keywords Artificial intelligence pre-emption hyper-coercion autonomous weapon systems
21.1
human emotions instability
Introduction
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is influencing national defence in several important ways. It alters the way states plan and
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