Next Generation Detailed Seismic Zoning Maps for Southern Sakhalin Island
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MOLOGY
Next Generation Detailed Seismic Zoning Maps for Southern Sakhalin Island A. V. Konovalova,* and A. A. Stepnova Presented by Academician A.I. Khanchuk March 13, 2020 Received March 13, 2020; revised June 30, 2020; accepted July 1, 2020
Abstract—A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is applied, for the first time in the case of Sakhalin Island, using a regional ground motion prediction equation in terms of the peak ground acceleration. The seismic hazard maps for 475-year-long and 975-year-long recurrence intervals are made for southern Sakhalin Island. Keywords: seismic zoning, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, ground motion prediction equation, seismic source model DOI: 10.1134/S1028334X2009010X
Regarding the methodology of seismic zoning of the territory of the Russian Federation, the views of researchers vary considerably. Some of the specialists follow the approaches based on the use of seismic accelerations for normalization of seismic effects [1, 2]. Note that these researchers do not have empirically founded attenuation models for the regions studied and propose to employ such models for regions wellprovided with seismological data. The opposite point of view [3, 4] argues that the pronounced peculiarities of similar regions can cause unpredictable distortions to the calculations and proposes to use macroseismic intensity points instead, as is traditionally done in Russia [5]. In practice, the transition from intensity points to acceleration values takes place in a discrete manner, i.e., intensities of I = VII, VIII, and IX correspond to peak ground accelerations of 100, 200, and 400 cm/s2 used for engineering purposes. In this case it is difficult to predict the highest distorting factor, which can be either the epistemic uncertainty of the imported model of attenuation of seismic accelerations or the random uncertainty in the intensity–acceleration relationship. One of the first attempts at seismic zoning in terms of physical units for the cities and towns of Sakhalin a Sakhalin
Department, Far East Geological Institute, Far East Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, 693023 Russia *e-mail: [email protected]
Island was made in [1]. The calculation scheme employed the next-generation attenuation models developed in 2008 in the United States in the framework of the NGA project. However, the calculation results were presented in an integer-number intensity point, undermining the very idea of detailed seismic zoning. Today, great attention is paid to the industrial development of Sakhalin oblast. Most infrastructural projects being implemented are concentrated in the southern part of Sakhalin Island. In this respect, it is this region that was selected as a test area for detailed seismic hazard mapping. In the present work, we used the CRISIS program [6], which has been comprehensively tested in different seismoactive regions of the Earth, including Sakhalin Island [7]. A fundamentally novel feature is that the empirically justified relationship for attenuation of
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