Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways: Future narratives for assessment of water-related ecosystem services in agricultural and for
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ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF A GREEN BIO-ECONOMY
Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways: Future narratives for assessment of water-related ecosystem services in agricultural and forest management Jelena Rakovic, Martyn N. Futter, Katarina Kyllmar, Katri Rankinen, Marc I. Stutter, Jan Vermaat, Dennis Collentine
Received: 17 January 2020 / Revised: 18 May 2020 / Accepted: 21 August 2020 / Published online: 13 September 2020
Abstract Further development of the bioeconomy, the substitution of bioresources for fossil resources, will lead to an increased pressure on land and water resources in both agriculture and forestry. It is important to study whether resultant changes in land management may in turn lead to impairment of water services. This paper describes the Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways (NBPs), a set of regional sectoral storylines nested within the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) framework developed to provide the BIOWATER research program with land management scenarios for projecting future developments to explore possible conflicts between land management changes and the Water Framework Directive (WFD). The NBPs are a set of narrative storylines capturing a range of plausible future trajectories for the Nordic bioeconomy until 2050 and that are fit for use within hydrological catchment modelling, ecosystem service studies and stakeholder dialogue about possible changes in agricultural and forestry management practices. Keywords Bioeconomy Catchment modelling Land use Shared socioeconomic pathways Storylines Water quality
INTRODUCTION Development of the bioeconomy (bioresource-based economy) is on the policy agenda across Europe and considered an essential component of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies (European Commission 2018). An increased reliance on bioresources can reduce societal dependence on fossil resources, thus contributing to a more circular economy. As part of the bioeconomy policy agenda, there are incentives to increase
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land-based biomass production of bioresource-based materials and fuels (Nordic Council of Ministers 2018). While bioeconomy developments are motivated by a desire to achieve environmental goals, it is not clear how this ambition in combination with recent incentives for sustainable intensification of agriculture to feed a growing world population (Rockstrom et al. 2017; Tilman et al. 2011) and the ensuing transformation in land cover and land management will affect the provision of ecosystem services. The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) dictates that activities leading to the degradation of water bodies from Good Ecological Status (GES) are either prohibited or subject to management restrictions (2000/60 EC). In the Nordic countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland), these constraints may limit efforts to increase forest and agricultural biomass production. A concern over conflicts between WFD goals and the emerging land-based bioeconomy led to the creation of BIOWATER, a Nordic Centre of Excellence dedicated to examining the combined impacts o
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