Novel risk scoring system for predicting acute respiratory distress syndrome among hospitalized patients with coronaviru
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Novel risk scoring system for predicting acute respiratory distress syndrome among hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in Wuhan, China Mengyuan Liang1†, Miao He1†, Jian Tang1†, Xinliang He1†, Zhijun Liu2, Siwei Feng1, Ping Chen1, Hui Li1, Yu’e Xue1, Tao Bai3, Yanling Ma1* and Jianchu Zhang1*
Abstract Background: The mortality rate from acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is high among hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Hence, risk evaluation tools are required to immediately identify high-risk patients upon admission for early intervention. Methods: A cohort of 220 consecutive patients with COVID-19 were included in this study. To analyze the risk factors of ARDS, data obtained from approximately 70% of the participants were randomly selected and used as training dataset to establish a logistic regression model. Meanwhile, data obtained from the remaining 30% of the participants were used as test dataset to validate the effect of the model. Results: Lactate dehydrogenase, blood urea nitrogen, D-dimer, procalcitonin, and ferritin levels were included in the risk score system and were assigned a score of 25, 15, 34, 20, and 24, respectively. The cutoff value for the total score was > 35, with a sensitivity of 100.00% and specificity of 81.20%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test were 0.967 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.925–0.989) and 0.437(P Value = 0.437). The model had excellent discrimination and calibration during internal validation. Conclusions: The novel risk score may be a valuable risk evaluation tool for screening patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk of ARDS. Keywords: COVID-19, ARDS, Risk score
* Correspondence: [email protected]; [email protected] † Mengyuan Liang, Miao He, Jian Tang and Xinliang He contributed equally to this work. 1 Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical Collage, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1277 Jiefang Avenue, Wuhan 430022, Hubei Province, China Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. T
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