Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting

This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements.  It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approache

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Tommy Bengtsson Nico Keilman Editors

Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting

Demographic Research Monographs A Series of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

Editor-in-chief Mikko Myrskyla¨ Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Rostock, Germany

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/5521

Tommy Bengtsson • Nico Keilman Editors

Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting

Editors Tommy Bengtsson Centre for Economic Demography Lund University Lund, Sweden

Nico Keilman Department of Economics University of Oslo Oslo, Norway

ISSN 1613-5520 ISSN 2197-9286 (electronic) Demographic Research Monographs ISBN 978-3-030-05074-0 ISBN 978-3-030-05075-7 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05075-7 Library of Congress Control Number: 2018968401 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2019. This book is an open access publication. Open Access This book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this book are included in the book’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the book’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG. The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

The Stockholm Committee on Mortality Forecasting was created in 2000 by the National Social Insurance Board, which is the national agency in Sweden responsible for providing a financial picture of Sweden’s public pension system. The aim of the Committee was to survey the state of the art and to provide an impetus for the advancement of knowledge and better practice in forecasting mortality. To do s