On predictive entrepreneurial action in uncertain, ill-structured conditions
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On predictive entrepreneurial action in uncertain, ill‑structured conditions David J. Rapp1,2 · Michael Olbrich3 Received: 26 May 2020 / Accepted: 19 August 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Decision-making is at the heart of entrepreneurship. Unsurprisingly, entrepreneurship research has engaged with processes of entrepreneurial decision-making resulting, most importantly, in the notions of causation, effectuation, and enactment. Nevertheless, the range of processes delineated to date remains somewhat incomplete. Drawing on crucial insights from the analysis of decision problem structures reveals that entrepreneurship theory has lacked a process that both recognizes the ill-structuredness typically surrounding entrepreneurial decisions and places prognoses center stage. While effectuation implicitly addresses structural defects but denies prognoses a central role, causation emphasizes the importance of predictions while being associated with well-structured, risky environments, and thus, unaffected by structural defects. Theorizing about a combination thereof, that is, a process recognizing and considering the ill-structuredness of entrepreneurial environments yet building on predictions of the future is overdue. This paper, therefore, seeks to foster a more comprehensive yet nuanced understanding of entrepreneurial decision-making processes by outlining the intrinsic features of one such process that we term execution and relating it to existing processes. Keywords Causation · Effectuation · Enactment · Uncertainty · Ill-structuredness · Execution JEL Classification D81 · L26 Mathematics Subject Classification 90B50 · 91B06 * Michael Olbrich [email protected]‑saarland.de David J. Rapp david.rapp@imt‑bs.eu 1
Law, Economics, and Finance Department, Institut Mines-Télécom Business School, Evry, France
2
Research Lab LITEM, Université Paris-Saclay, Univ. Evry, IMT‑BS, Evry, France
3
Institute of Auditing, Saarland University, Saarbrücken, Germany
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D. J. Rapp, M. Olbrich
1 Introduction “Entrepreneurship is increasingly considered a milestone on the road towards progress” (Ribeiro-Soriano and Kraus 2018 referencing Semrau et al. 2016); unsurprisingly, therefore, entrepreneurship continues to attract considerable attention (Ferreira et al. 2019). Among the various streams of entrepreneurship research (Ferreira et al. 2019), one definition condenses the concept down to, “reasoned action in uncertainty” (Packard et al. 2017: 841). As action presupposes some kind of decision to act one way or another (including non-action), entrepreneurship research has placed the study of entrepreneurial decision-making in the face of uncertainty at its core (Shepherd et al. 2015). Research has inter alia centered on particular decisionmaking processes available to entrepreneurs, such as causation, effectuation, and enactment (Bhowmick 2015; Chandler et al. 2011; Read et al. 2009; Sarasvathy 2001, 2008). In addition—and somewhat related to the discussion on the various processes entrepreneurs (ca
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