On the connection between AMOC and observed land precipitation in Northern Hemisphere: a comparison of the AMOC indicato
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On the connection between AMOC and observed land precipitation in Northern Hemisphere: a comparison of the AMOC indicators Jing Zhang1 · Yusen Liu1 · Cheng Sun1 · Jianping Li2,3 · Ruiqiang Ding4 · Fei Xie1 · Tiejun Xie1 · Yazhou Zhang2 · Zhanqiu Gong1 Received: 15 May 2020 / Accepted: 9 October 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Decadal climate prediction has been one of the most popular topics in recent climate change studies. It is closely linked to our daily life, deeply affecting the wellbeing of people and global economic growth. Among those climate variables, precipitation is essential for industrial and agricultural productions but it’s also hard to precisely predict. In this study, we provide observational evidence for the relationship of mean precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), NH tropics and Sahel with the five Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) indicators on the multidecadal time scale. We conclude that precipitation in those three regions exhibits a consistent multidecadal variability from 1901 to 2015. The correlations between NH precipitation and AMOC indicators are strong and significant. The NAO-based AMOC indicator leads the precipitation by 8 years and the correlation coefficient reaches 0.9 higher than other oceanic indicators. It is the NAO that forces the AMOC transporting heat to the North Atlantic and induces sea surface temperature (SST) dipole which eventually affects the multidecadal precipitation change in NH. As the AMOC_NAO indicator leads the precipitation, we employ it as a predictor and construct a linear model to make a future prediction based on historical data. It indicates that the precipitation will decrease in the following few years, and then will rise again. Keywords AMOC indicator · Northern Hemisphere precipitation · Multidecadal variability
1 Introduction
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05496-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Cheng Sun [email protected] 1
College of Global Change and Earth System Science (GCESS), Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2
Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES)/Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
3
Laboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate, Pilot Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM), Qingdao 266237, China
4
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
The Northern Hemisphere (NH) has the largest land and sea, and about 90% of the world’s population lives in the NH. Complex geological relationships make it even harder to fully understand the NH climate system under the circumstances of anthropogenic climate change. Thus, it’s worth investigating the natural variability in NH and managing to
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